State Bank of India’s (SBI) research report ‘Ecowrap’ stated India’s Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth for Q1 FY22 to be in the range of 10-15 percent as against RBI’s forecast of 26.2 percent. It also forecasted Real GDP loss in the range of Rs 4-4.5 lakh crore for Q1 FY22.
- SBI has developed a ‘nowcasting model’ with 41 high-frequency indicators associated with industry activity, service activity, and global economy in collaboration with State Bank Institute of Leadership (SBIL), Kolkata
Key points of the Report:
i.As per the model, it predicts India’s GDP to grow at 1.3 percent in the Q4 FY21 with a contraction of around 7.3(-7.3) percent in FY21 compared to its earlier prediction of 7.4 (-7.4) percent).
ii.The report stated India as a fifth-fastest-growing country among the 25 nations that have released their GDP numbers so far.
iii.It expects nominal GDP loss of up to Rs 6 lakh crore in Q1 FY22 as compared to Rs 11 lakh crore of Q1 FY21 and Estimated real GDP loss between Rs 4-4.5 lakh crore.
iv.The report mentioned a decline in both deposits and credit of all the banks in April and May, 2021 (Deposits increased by Rs 2.8 lakh crore in FY21 in FY22 it has already increased by Rs 1 lakh crore till May 7).
Icra Forecasted Q4fy21 GDP growth at 2%
Domestic ratings agency ICRA Limited (Investment Information and Credit Rating Agency of India Limited) forecasted India’s GDP growth in the Q4FY21 at 2 percent, with a 7.3(-7.3) percent contraction for FY21.
- From GVA (gross value added) perspective, ICRA forecasts Q4FY21 growth at 3 percent with the contraction at 6.3(-6.3) percent in FY21.
- ICRA’s projection is better than National Statistical Office (NSO) forecast of 8(-8) percent contraction in FY21 with growth over Q4FY21 at 1.1 percent.
Recent Related News:
As per the RBI’s report “Developments in India’s Balance of Payments during the Third Quarter (October-December) of 2020-21(Q3FY21)” on March 31, 2021, India has recorded a current account balance deficit of $1.7 billion (i.e. 0.2% of Gross Domestic Product(GDP)) in Q3FY21 due to the COVID-19’s impact on trade.
About State Bank of India(SBI):
Establishment – 1st July 1955
Chairman – Dinesh Kumar Khara
Headquarters – Mumbai, Maharashtra
Tagline – The Banker to Every Indian
About ICRA Limited (Investment Information and Credit Rating Agency of India Limited):
Establishment – 1991
Headquarters – New Delhi
MD & CEO – N. Sivaraman