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First Advance Estimates of National Income of 2019-20 by NSO released

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On January 07, 2020 the National Statistical Office (NSO) of the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) has released the 1st Advance estimates of the national income at both constant(2011-12) and current prices for FY(Financial Year) 2019-20. The corresponding expenditure components of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was also estimated. The data in detail are as follows:First Advance Estimates of National Income of 2019-20:
GDP, GVA & Per capita income Constant (2011-12) prices estimates:
The features of the estimate are as follows:

i.GDP: GDP in the year 2019-20 is likely to attain Rs 147.79 lakh crores against the Rs 140.78lakh crore estimate for 2018-19 released on May 31, 2019.

  • GDP growth: The growth in real GDP for 2019-20 is estimated at 5% compared to 6.8% for 2018-19.

ii.GVA at basic prices: The real Gross Value Added (GVA) at basic prices are estimated to increase to Rs 135.40 lakh crore for 2019-20 from Rs 129.07 lakh crore of 2018-19.

  • GVA estimate growth: GVA has been estimated to grow in real at 9% in 2019-20 as against 6.6% in 2018-19.

Per Capita Income:The Per Capita Income in real terms (at 2011-12 prices) during 2019-20 is likely to attain a level of Rs.96,563 as compared to Rs. 92,565 for the year 2018-19.

  • The growth rate in Per Capita Income is estimated at 4.3% during 2019-20, as against 5.6% in the 2018-19.

GVA Estimates at constant prices:
Some of the sectors that are estimated for GVA growth in 2019-20 are listed out as follows:

  • 5.4% growth: Electricity, Gas, Water Supply and Other Utility Services. The previous estimate was 7% in 2018-19.
  • 5.9% growth: Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services related to Broadcasting. Previous estimate of 6.9% in 2018-19.
  • 6.4% growth: Financial, Real Estate and Professional Services. Previous estimate was 7.4% in 2018-19.
  • 9.1% growth: Public Administration, Defence & Other Services. Previous estimate was 8.6% in 2018019.
  • 2.8% growth: Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing. Previous estimate was 2.9% for 2018-19.
  • 1.5% growth: Mining and Quarrying. Previous estimate was 1.3% for 2018-19.
  • 2.0% growth: Manufacturing. Previous estimate was 6.9% in 2018-19.
  • 3.2% growth: Construction. Previous estimate was 8.7 in 2018-19.

Estimates at current prices:

i.Price Indices used as Deflators:  The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) with respect to groups i.e., food articles, manufactured products, electricity and all commodities rose by 8%,  (-) 0.3% and 1.4% respectively during April-November 2019-20. Similarly the Consumer Price Index(CPI) rise by 3.7% during the same mentioned period.

ii.Gross Domestic Product:  GDP is derived by adding Taxes on Products net of Subsidies on Products to GVA at Basic Prices.  The GDP will attain a level of Rs 204.42 lakh crore against Rs.190.10 lakh crore in 2018-19 with growth rate 7.5%.

iii.National Income: National Income also known as the nominal net national income(NNI) is likely to be of Rs 181.10 lakh crore during 2019-20 as against Rs 168.37 lakh crore for 2018-19.  There is also a registered growth rate of 7.6% in 2019-20 as compared to 11.3% of 2018-19.

iv.Per Capita Income: Rs.1,35,050 is estimated as per capita national income during 2019-20 and shows a rise of 6.8% as compared to Rs 1,26,406 during 2018-19 with the growth rate of 10%.

Annual estimates of final expenditures of GDP, 2019-20:
The 1st Advance Estimates of Expenditures of the GDP at Current and Constant (2011-12) Prices are also released.

i.Private final consumption expenditure: 

  • Current and constant price:123.07 lakh crore has been estimated in 2019-20 for Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) as against Rs 112.90 lakh crores in 2018-19 at current price. At constant price it is estimated at Rs. 84.81 lakh crore in 2019-20 as compared to Rs 80.17 lakh crore in 2018-19.
  • GDP estimation: In terms of GDP, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (2011-12) prices during 2019-20 are estimated at 60.2% and 57.4 % respectively  against 59.4% and 56.9% respectively in 2018-19.

ii.Government Final Consumption Expenditure:  

  • Current and constant price: The GFCE which is Government Final Consumption Expenditure at current prices is estimated at Rs 24.34 lakh crore in 2019-20 as against Rs 21.35 lakh crore in 2018-19. At constant prices it is estimated at Rs ₹16.65 lakh crore in 2019-20 as against ₹15.06 lakh crore in 2018-19.
  • GDP estimation:In terms of GDP, the current and constant (2011-12) prices during 2019-20  are estimated at 11.9% and 11.3% as against 11.2% and 10.7% in 2018-19.

iii.Gross Fixed Capital Formation: 

  • Current and constant price: GFCF which is Gross Fixed Capital Formation at Current Prices is estimated at ₹57.42 lakh crore in 2019-20 as against ₹55.70 lakh crore in 2018-19. At Constant (2011-12) Prices, the GFCF is estimated at ₹45.93 lakh crore in 2019-20 as against ₹45.48 lakh crore in 2018-19.
  • GDP estimation: In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2011-12) prices during 2019-20 are estimated at 28.1% and 31.1%, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 29.3% and 32.3% respectively in 2018-19.

iv.The 2nd release of the Advance Estimates of National Income for the year 2019-20 & quarterly GDP estimate for the third quarter (October-December), 2019-20 (Q3 of 2019-20) will be on February 28, 2020.

Indicators:

i.The advance estimates were compiled based on Benchmark-Indicator method.

ii.Sector wise indicators: The sector wise estimates were done with the help of indicators which are as follows:

  • Index of Industrial Production (IIP) of 1st 7 months of the financial year.
  • Financial performance of listed Companies in the Private Corporate sector available till quarter ending September, 2019.
  • 1st Advance Estimates of Crop production.
  • Accounts of  Central & State govts, information on indicators like deposits & credits, passenger & freight earnings of Railways, passengers and cargo handled by civil aviation, Cargo handled at major sea ports, sales of commercial vehicles, etc., available for the 1st  8 months of the financial year. Click here to know more. 

About Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI):
Fact- MoSPI came into existence after the merger of the Department of Statistics and the Department of Programme Implementation.
Founded- 15 October 1999.
Headquarters- New Delhi.
Minister of State(MoS- independent Charge)- Rao Inderjit Singh.
Secretary- Shri Pravin Srivastava