First Advance Estimates of National Income of 2019-20 by NSO released

On January 07, 2020 the National Statistical Office (NSO) of the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) has released the 1st Advance estimates of the national income at both constant(2011-12) and current prices for FY(Financial Year) 2019-20. The corresponding expenditure components of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was also estimated. The data in detail are as follows:First Advance Estimates of National Income of 2019-20:
GDP, GVA & Per capita income Constant (2011-12) prices estimates:The features of the estimate are as follows:

i.GDP: GDP in the year 2019-20 is likely to attain Rs 147.79 lakh crores against the Rs 140.78lakh crore estimate for 2018-19 released on May 31, 2019.

• GDP growth: The growth in real GDP for 2019-20 is estimated at 5% compared to 6.8% for 2018-19.

ii.GVA at basic prices: The real Gross Value Added (GVA) at basic prices are estimated to increase to Rs 135.40 lakh crore for 2019-20 from Rs 129.07 lakh crore of 2018-19.

• GVA estimate growth: GVA has been estimated to grow in real at 9% in 2019-20 as against 6.6% in 2018-19.

Per Capita Income:The Per Capita Income in real terms (at 2011-12 prices) during 2019-20 is likely to attain a level of Rs.96,563 as compared to Rs. 92,565 for the year 2018-19.

• The growth rate in Per Capita Income is estimated at 4.3% during 2019-20, as against 5.6% in the 2018-19.

GVA Estimates at constant prices:
Some of the sectors that are estimated for GVA growth in 2019-20 are listed out as follows:

• 5.4% growth: Electricity, Gas, Water Supply and Other Utility Services. The previous estimate was 7% in 2018-19.
• 5.9% growth: Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services related to Broadcasting. Previous estimate of 6.9% in 2018-19.
• 6.4% growth: Financial, Real Estate and Professional Services. Previous estimate was 7.4% in 2018-19.
• 9.1% growth: Public Administration, Defence & Other Services. Previous estimate was 8.6% in 2018019.
• 2.8% growth: Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing. Previous estimate was 2.9% for 2018-19.
• 1.5% growth: Mining and Quarrying. Previous estimate was 1.3% for 2018-19.
• 2.0% growth: Manufacturing. Previous estimate was 6.9% in 2018-19.
• 3.2% growth: Construction. Previous estimate was 8.7 in 2018-19.

Estimates at current prices:

i.Price Indices used as Deflators:  The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) with respect to groups i.e., food articles, manufactured products, electricity and all commodities rose by 8%,  (-) 0.3% and 1.4% respectively during April-November 2019-20. Similarly the Consumer Price Index(CPI) rise by 3.7% during the same mentioned period.

ii.Gross Domestic Product:  GDP is derived by adding Taxes on Products net of Subsidies on Products to GVA at Basic Prices.  The GDP will attain a level of Rs 204.42 lakh crore against Rs.190.10 lakh crore in 2018-19 with growth rate 7.5%.

iii.National Income: National Income also known as the nominal net national income(NNI) is likely to be of Rs 181.10 lakh crore during 2019-20 as against Rs 168.37 lakh crore for 2018-19.  There is also a registered growth rate of 7.6% in 2019-20 as compared to 11.3% of 2018-19.

iv.Per Capita Income: Rs.1,35,050 is estimated as per capita national income during 2019-20 and shows a rise of 6.8% as compared to Rs 1,26,406 during 2018-19 with the growth rate of 10%.

Annual estimates of final expenditures of GDP, 2019-20:
The 1st Advance Estimates of Expenditures of the GDP at Current and Constant (2011-12) Prices are also released.

i.Private final consumption expenditure: 

• Current and constant price:123.07 lakh crore has been estimated in 2019-20 for Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) as against Rs 112.90 lakh crores in 2018-19 at current price. At constant price it is estimated at Rs. 84.81 lakh crore in 2019-20 as compared to Rs 80.17 lakh crore in 2018-19.
• GDP estimation: In terms of GDP, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (2011-12) prices during 2019-20 are estimated at 60.2% and 57.4 % respectively  against 59.4% and 56.9% respectively in 2018-19.

ii.Government Final Consumption Expenditure:  

• Current and constant price: The GFCE which is Government Final Consumption Expenditure at current prices is estimated at Rs 24.34 lakh crore in 2019-20 as against Rs 21.35 lakh crore in 2018-19. At constant prices it is estimated at Rs ₹16.65 lakh crore in 2019-20 as against ₹15.06 lakh crore in 2018-19.
• GDP estimation:In terms of GDP, the current and constant (2011-12) prices during 2019-20  are estimated at 11.9% and 11.3% as against 11.2% and 10.7% in 2018-19.

iii.Gross Fixed Capital Formation: 

• Current and constant price: GFCF which is Gross Fixed Capital Formation at Current Prices is estimated at ₹57.42 lakh crore in 2019-20 as against ₹55.70 lakh crore in 2018-19. At Constant (2011-12) Prices, the GFCF is estimated at ₹45.93 lakh crore in 2019-20 as against ₹45.48 lakh crore in 2018-19.
• GDP estimation: In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2011-12) prices during 2019-20 are estimated at 28.1% and 31.1%, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 29.3% and 32.3% respectively in 2018-19.

iv.The 2nd release of the Advance Estimates of National Income for the year 2019-20 & quarterly GDP estimate for the third quarter (October-December), 2019-20 (Q3 of 2019-20) will be on February 28, 2020.

Indicators:

i.The advance estimates were compiled based on Benchmark-Indicator method.

ii.Sector wise indicators: The sector wise estimates were done with the help of indicators which are as follows:

• Index of Industrial Production (IIP) of 1st 7 months of the financial year.
• Financial performance of listed Companies in the Private Corporate sector available till quarter ending September, 2019.
• 1st Advance Estimates of Crop production.
• Accounts of  Central & State govts, information on indicators like deposits & credits, passenger & freight earnings of Railways, passengers and cargo handled by civil aviation, Cargo handled at major sea ports, sales of commercial vehicles, etc., available for the 1st  8 months of the financial year. Click here to know more. 

About Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI):
Fact- MoSPI came into existence after the merger of the Department of Statistics and the Department of Programme Implementation.
Founded- 15 October 1999.
Headquarters- New Delhi.
Minister of State(MoS- independent Charge)- Rao Inderjit Singh.
Secretary- Shri Pravin Srivastava