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Mean Average Global Temperature could rise by 1.5° Celsius in 5 years: WMO

World Could Hit 1point 5-Degree WarmingThe United Nations (UN) weather Agency, World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in its “Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update for 2020-2024” has forecasted that the annual mean global temperature are already at least 1 C higher now than during the period from 1850-1900 because of man-made greenhouse emissions and there is a 20% chance that it will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) in at least one year between 2020-2024. Overall, it is very likely to be within the range 0.91 – 1.59°C.

  • The 1.5 C mark is the level to which countries have agreed to try to limit global warming as per 2015 Paris accord. The agreement sets a goal of keeping global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit), ideally no more than 1.5 C.
  • The earth’s average temperature is already over 1.0 C above the pre-industrial period. The last five-year period (2015-2019) has been the warmest five years on record. 

Key Points:

-There is about a 70% chance that one or more months during the next 5 years will be at least 1.5°C warmer than pre-industrial levels.

-There is about 3% chance that the 5 year mean temperature for 2020-2024 will be 1.5°C warmer than pre-industrial levels.

-Over 2020-2024, almost all regions, except parts of the southern oceans, are likely to be warmer than the recent past

-In 2020, many parts of South America, southern Africa and Australia are likely to be dryer than the recent past.

In 2020, large land areas in the northern hemisphere are likely to be over 0.8°C warmer than the average temperature in the 29-year period between 1981 and 2010.

-Notably, the model used in the forecast does not consider the impact of the coronavirus pandemic as the industrial and economic slowdown is not a substitute for sustained and coordinated climate action.

Click Here for Official Link

About The Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update:

It is led by the United Kingdom’s Met Office, provides a climate outlook for the next five years, updated annually. 

  • For 2020, the UK’s Met Office acting as lead centre, WMO co-sponsored World Climate Research Programme, climate prediction groups from Spain, Germany, Canada, China, USA, Japan, Australia, Sweden, Norway and Denmark contributed in new predictions.

About World Meteorological Organization (WMO):
Secretary-General (SG)– Petteri Taalas
Headquarter– Geneva, Switzerland 
Members– 187 Member States and 6 Member Territories