The United Nations (UN) weather Agency, World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in its “Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update for 2020-2024” has forecasted that the annual mean global temperature are already at least 1 C higher now than during the period from 1850-1900 because of man-made greenhouse emissions and there is a 20% chance that it will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) in at least one year between 2020-2024. Overall, it is very likely to be within the range 0.91 – 1.59°C.
- The 1.5 C mark is the level to which countries have agreed to try to limit global warming as per 2015 Paris accord. The agreement sets a goal of keeping global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit), ideally no more than 1.5 C.
- The earth’s average temperature is already over 1.0 C above the pre-industrial period. The last five-year period (2015-2019) has been the warmest five years on record.
Key Points:
-There is about a 70% chance that one or more months during the next 5 years will be at least 1.5°C warmer than pre-industrial levels.
-There is about 3% chance that the 5 year mean temperature for 2020-2024 will be 1.5°C warmer than pre-industrial levels.
-Over 2020-2024, almost all regions, except parts of the southern oceans, are likely to be warmer than the recent past
-In 2020, many parts of South America, southern Africa and Australia are likely to be dryer than the recent past.
– In 2020, large land areas in the northern hemisphere are likely to be over 0.8°C warmer than the average temperature in the 29-year period between 1981 and 2010.
-Notably, the model used in the forecast does not consider the impact of the coronavirus pandemic as the industrial and economic slowdown is not a substitute for sustained and coordinated climate action.
About The Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update:
It is led by the United Kingdom’s Met Office, provides a climate outlook for the next five years, updated annually.
- For 2020, the UK’s Met Office acting as lead centre, WMO co-sponsored World Climate Research Programme, climate prediction groups from Spain, Germany, Canada, China, USA, Japan, Australia, Sweden, Norway and Denmark contributed in new predictions.
About World Meteorological Organization (WMO):
Secretary-General (SG)– Petteri Taalas
Headquarter– Geneva, Switzerland
Members– 187 Member States and 6 Member Territories
