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India’s GDP Growth to Contract by 8.9% for CY 2020: Forecast by Moody’s and Goldman Sachs

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On November 12, 2020 As per Moody’s ‘Global Macro Outlook 2021-22: Nascent economic rebound takes hold globally but will remain fragile’, India’s GDP(Gross Domestic Product) for the Calendar Year(CY) 2020 is revised upwards to -8.9%(contract by 8.9) from -9.6% projected earlier. It also has revised the GDP for the CY 2021 upwards to 8.6% from 8.1% projected earlier.

Goldman Sachs in its global economic analysis report titled ‘V(accine)-Shaped Recovery’, has projected India’s GDP growth to contract by 8.9%(-8.9%) for CY 2020.

It has reiterated its projections of India’s GDP growth for CY 2021 and CY 2022 to be 10%and 7.2% respectively.

Other Key Projections of  Moody’s :

i.G-20 economies are expected to contract by 3.8% in 2020, followed by 4.9% growth in 2021 and 3.8% growth in 2022.

ii.The test positivity rate of the COVID-19 pandemic has fallen below 5%in India and below 10%in South Africa.

iii.In 2019, the Indian economy has grown by 4.8%.

iv.Over the coming quarters, it forecasts a gradual improvement in economic activity.

v.The coronavirus is likely to become a less important macro factor in 2021 and 2022.

Projection of Goldman Sachs:

Goldman Sachs, in september 2020, had forecasted India’s 2021 CY growth at 9.9% and financial year 2021-22 at 15.7%

Recent Related News:

On October 13, 2020, International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO-October 2020), titled “A Long and Difficult Ascent” projected India’s gross domestic product (GDP) to contract 10.3% (i.e.-10.3 %) in comparison to June forecast of 4.5% amid COVID19. On the other hand for FY21-22 Indian economy is expecting a rebound of 8.8% growth rate higher than the 6% forecast earlier.

About Goldman Sachs:

Chairman and Chief Executive Officer (CEO)– David Michael(M) Solomon
Headquarters– New York, United States (US)

About Moody’s:

Headquarters– NewYork, United States
President & CEO– Raymond W. McDaniel, Jr.