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Indian Economy to Contract by 9.6% in 2020, Grow at 7.3% in 2021: UN-DESA Report

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Indian economy estimated to contract byIn accordance with the report, titled “World Economic Situation and Prospects 2021” by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN-DESA), India’s economy is estimated to contract by 9.6% (-9.6%) in 2020, while it is projected to grow at 7.3% in 2021. This projection is highest among major economies of the world.

  • On the global front, the economy is contracted by 4.3%(-4.3%) in 2020 but it projected a recovery of 4.7% in 2021.
  • Notably, a fall in the global economy was 2.5 times more than the contraction during the financial crisis of 2009.
  • UN DESA in partnership with the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD),Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA), Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (UNECLAC), Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP) and Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (UNESCWA) released the report.

Note – UN report estimates are for the calendar year, for eg: January 2020 – December 2020.

Key Points:

–The major reason behind the contraction in Indian economy is COVID-19 induced lockdowns and other containment efforts which increased the unemployment to 23% by mid-2020.

–India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate had contracted by 7.5%(-7.5%) in Q2FY21, and 23.9% in Q1FY21.

–The labour market of South Asia consists of 80% of all the workers in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan. Labourers from this 80% were the most exposed to unemployment.

–In mid-2020, unemployment rates escalated to record highs viz. 27% in Nigeria, 23% in India, 21% in Colombia, 17% in the Philippines and above 13% in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

–The total number of people living in poverty is expected to increase by 131 million in 2020 and 797 million people will be trapped in extreme poverty in 2030. This will represent a global poverty headcount ratio of over 9%.

ILO Report:

Earlier, the International Labour Organization (ILO) also released its 7th edition of report titled “ILO Monitor:COVID-19 and the world of work” which states that in 2020, the world faced a job loss of 255 million jobs where South Asia accounted for 80 million.

  • As per the ILO projection, South Asia including India could see 4.9% loss in working hours in 2021 which could result in job loss of up to 31 million in the worst case scenario.
  • ILO estimates unemployment by counting losses in working hours.

Key Points:

–China and India, registered an estimated annual average losses of 4.1% and 13.7%, respectively.

–In Asia and the Pacific, the annual estimated decline in working hours in 2020 is 7.9%.

–In Q4FY21, global working hours declined by 4.6%, equivalent to 130 million full-time jobs.

Click here for official ILO Report

Recent Related News:

i.On December 10, 2020, the India Energy Storage Alliance (IESA) and United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) collaborated to promote innovations in energy storage in India.

ii.According to “Trade and Development Report 2020 – From Global Pandemic to Prosperity for All: Avoiding Another Lost Decade” released by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Global Trade is expected to fall by 7-9% in 2020 due to the Pandemic.

About United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN-DESA):
Under-Secretary-General– Liu Zhenmin
Headquarter– New York, United States (US)