The Centre for International Development (CID) at Harvard University has forecasted that India has the potential to be the world’s fastest growing economy gushing ahead of its South Asian economic rival China.
- India has topped the global list with the growth rate projection at 7%.
- On the other hand India’s contender China is expecting to face a continous slowdown to 3% growth annually to 2024.
India’s efforts as growing economy
- India has taken big paces in improving its productive capabilities; it has diversified its exports into more complex products including pharmaceuticals, vehicles and electronics.
- India’s recent gains in complexity not only will drive higher incomes but also position it to lead global economic growth.
The United Nations has also predicted that India will continue to be the fastest growing economy in the world in 2016 (7.3%) and 2017 (7.5%).
Projection about Other Economies
- South Asia and East Africa have the greatest potential for rapid growth while oil economies and other commodity-driven economies face the slowest growth outlook.
- CID is bullish on East Africa with Uganda, Tanzania and Kenya ranking in the top 10 with all predicted to grow at least 5% annually.
- The growth forecast also looks favourable on Southeast Asia, where Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam look to drive growth well above global averages.
- The US is expected to grow at 8% annually to 2024, with higher growth predicted in the United Kingdom (3.2%) and Spain (3.4%).
- There will be slow growth in Italy (1.8%) and Germany (0.35%).
About Centre for International Development (CID)
The CID at Harvard University is a university-wide centre that works to advance the understanding of development challenges and offer viable solutions to problems of global poverty. It also focus on resolving the dilemmas of public policy associated with generating stable, shared and sustainable prosperity in developing countries.
- The CID researchers used their newly updated measure of economic complexity which captures the diversity and sophistication of productive capabilities embedded in a country’s exports to generate the growth projections.