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ADB trimmed India’s growth forecast to 7.4% for 2015-16

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The Asian Development Bank (ADB) lowered growth projections for India for the current fiscal to 7.4% from the 7.8% earlier on concerns over weak monsoons and stalled structural reforms as well as continued economic slowdown in developed economies.

IN AN UPDATE TO ASIAN DEVELOPMENT OUTLOOK

  • ADB revised India’s GDP growth projection to 7.4% for 2015-16 from its earlier estimate of 7.8%.
  • Growth is expected to pick up to 8% in 2016-17 which earlier predicted to be 8.2%
  • ADB also scaled down China’s growth forecast to 8% in 2015-16 from 7.2% projected earlier and below the 7.3% posted in 2014 due to further slowdown in investment and weak exports.

OTHER AGENCIES

  • Moody Investors Service had last month lowered its growth estimates for India by half a percentage point to 7% for 2015-16 because of below-normal monsoon
  • Singapore-based commercial bank DBS reduced its estimate to 4% from 7.6%

CAUTION

  • Weak monsoon, flagging external demand, and stalled parliamentary action on structural reforms, including a revamped domestic tax system and eased restrictions on land acquisition and labour are expected to slow the economy.
  • Already India’s economic growth slowed to 7% in the April-June quarter from 7.5% in the January-March quarter, as measured at market prices.

WHAT IS GDP?

  • Gross domestic product (GDP) is the money value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period. It is usually calculated on an annual basis.
  • It includes all private and public consumption, government outlays, investments and exports minus imports that occur within a defined territory.