In July 2025, Tamil Nadu (TN) became the first state in India to implement a predictive death model for Tuberculosis (TB) patients, aiming to reduce mortality by identifying severely ill patients at the time of diagnosis and facilitating early admission to hospitals.
- The model is integrated into the existing TB SeWA (Severe TB Web Application) system under the Tamil Nadu – Kasanoi Erappila Thittam (TN-KET) initiative.
Key Features of the Predictive Model:
i.Developed by: Indian Council of Medical Research – National Institute of Epidemiology (ICMR-NIE), Chennai (TN), a permanent premier institute of the ICMR, Department of Health Research (DHR), Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW).
ii.Dataset used: Records of over 56,000 TB patients diagnosed in public health facilities across TN (July 2022 – June 2023)
iii.The model uses five triage variables—Body Mass Index (BMI), pedal oedema, respiratory rate, oxygen saturation, and ability to stand without support—to assess the severity of illness.
iv.TB SeWA now calculates the predicted probability of death for adults with TB, which ranges from 10% to 50% for severely ill patients and 1% to 4% for others.
v.This advancement enables frontline health workers to make informed decisions and prioritize hospital admission for high-risk patients.
- Currently, all 2,800 public health facilities in TN use the TB SeWA system, making it the only Indian state to record and utilize such triage data systematically.
vi.According to ICMR-NIE, nearly 10-15% of adult TB patients in the state are identified as severely ill at diagnosis.
- Despite an average diagnosis-to-admission time of one day, about 25% of these patients face delays of up to six days.
- The new model is expected to improve response time and reduce TB-related deaths, which mostly occur within the first two months of diagnosis.
Puducherry Becomes First to Implement TB Screening under FAP
In July 2025, Puducherry became the first Union Territory (UT) to integrate Tuberculosis (TB) screening under the Family Adoption Programme (FAP), mandated by the National Medical Commission (NMC), MoHFW in 2022 as part of Competency-Based Medical Education (CBME).
- The initiative is supported by Indira Gandhi Medical College (IGMC) (Puducherry) and the State TB Cell of Puducherry, which also implements Verbal Autopsies for identifying causes of TB-related deaths.
About the National Tuberculosis Elimination Programme (NTEP) – Puducherry:
i.Implemented since 20th February 2004, India is aiming to eliminate tuberculosis (TB) by 2025, which is five years ahead of the global target of 2030.
ii.Administered under the Department of Health & Family Welfare Services (DHFW) and National Health Mission (NHM)
iii.Covers 13.92 lakh population with 7 TB units, 28 diagnostic centres, and an Intermediate Reference Laboratory (IRL)
iv.Medical colleges in Puducherry contribute to 45% of TB notifications and participate in Active Case Finding (ACF) drives using Artificial Intelligence (AI)-enabled handheld chest X-rays and NAAT (Nucleic Acid Amplification Test) diagnostics.
About Indian Council of Medical Research – National Institute of Epidemiology (ICMR-NIE):
Director – Dr Manoj Murhekar
Headquarters – Chennai, Tamil Nadu (TN)
Established – 1999
About National Medical Commission (NMC):
Chairperson – Dr B.N. Gangadhar
Headquarters – New Delhi, Delhi
Formed -2020
