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Macro Economic Survey 2015-16

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On 26th February 2016, Finance minister Arun Jaitley tabled the Macro-Economic Survey 2015-16 in Parliament. The economic survey was prepared by the Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian.

  • In accordance with survey, Indian economy is growing at a pace of 7-7.5% and it is expected to accelerate at 8% in the next couple of years.
  • India’s macro-economy is sturdy and it is likely to be the fastest growing major economy in the world in 2016 as it shows an expansion from 7.2% in 2014-15 to 7.6% in current fiscal.

Economic Survey 2015-2016Before heading towards the other highlights lets us take a brief view on economic survey:
To showcase the ministry’s view on the annual economic development of the country, every year before the Union Budget, the economic survey is presented by Finance Ministry of India.

  • Economic Survey summarizes the performance on major development programs and highlights the policy initiatives of the government and the prospects of the economy in the short to medium term.
  • This document is presented to both houses of Parliament during the Budget Session.

Following are the highlights of the report:

Fiscal Deficit

  • 2015 -16 fiscal deficits seen at 3.9% of GDP seems achievable
  • 2016 – 17 expected to be challenging from fiscal point of view.
  • Credibility and optimality argue for adhering to 3.5% of GDP fiscal deficit target.

Inflation

  • CPI inflation seen around 4.5 to 5% in 2016 – 17.
  • Confidence in price stability has improved and it is expected that RBI to meet 5% inflation target by March 2017.
  • Prospect of lower oil prices over medium term likely to dampen inflationary expectations.

Current account deficit

  • 2016 – 17 current account deficit seen around 1-1.5% of GDP.

Currency

  • Rupee’s fair value can be achieved through monetary relaxation.
  • India needs to prepare itself for a major currency readjustment in Asia.
  • Gradual depreciation in rupee can be allowed if capital inflows are weak.

Taxes

  • Proposes widening tax net from 5.5% of earning individuals to more than 20%.
  • Tax revenue expected to be higher than budgeted levels in FY15 – 16.
  • Favours review and phasing out of tax exemptions.

Banking & Corporate Sector

  • Estimated capital requirement for banks likely around Rs 1.8 trillion by 2018 – 19.
  • Corporate, bank balance sheets remain stretched, affecting prospects for reviving private investments.
  • Underlying stressed assets in corporate sector must be sold or rehabilitated.
  • Govt could sell off certain non-financial companies to infuse capital in state-run banks.
  • Govt proposes to make available 700 bn rupees via budgetary allocations during current, succeeding years in banks.

India Ranks First in Milk Production
In accordance with the economic survey 2015-16, India ranks first in milk production, accounting for 18.5% of world production. It achieved an annual output of 146.3 million tons during 2014-15 as compared to 137.69 million tonnes during 2013-14 recording a growth of 6.26%.