India becomes the first country in the world to estimate tuberculosis (TB) burden in-country and launch its country-level mathematical model to estimate the prevalence of TB cases in India.
- The mathematical model to estimate TB cases was launched in the 36th Stop TB Partnership Board meeting (participated by delegates from 40 countries) at the One World TB summit 2023 which was held in Varanasi, Uttar Pradesh from 23- 26 March 2023.
- Existing Mechanism: Each year, the World Health Organization (WHO) Global TB Report provides a comprehensive and up-to-date assessment of the TB epidemic, and of progress in prevention, diagnosis and treatment of the disease, at global, regional and country levels.
- As per the Indian mathematical model’s data, the global TB reduction number was about 11% while the reduction in TB cases in India is 18%.
About the new mathematical model for TB:
i.The mathematical model for TB cases was developed based on the natural history of diseases, individual status of infection, disease, health care seeking, missed or correct diagnosis, treatment coverage and outcomes including cure and death.
ii.The TB model was formed by using data from several sources, including the Nikshay portal of private sector drug sales, the sub-national certification system where the TB-free status of various States is estimated and ranked.
- Note –India is currently holding the board chairmanship of the “Stop TB initiative” which is running in at least 40 countries under the “Stop TB” banner.
India’s TB Estimates as per New model:
i.In 2021, WHO projected estimated deaths from the communicable disease at 4.94 lakh, whereas it was now about 3.20 lakh under the new India’s model.
ii.The Indian mathematical model estimated the TB incidence rate (per 10,000) in India to be 196 in 2022 instead of the 210 estimated by the WHO (in 2021).
iii.The Indian model suggested the TB incidence absolute number to be 27.70 lakh in 2022. The WHO estimated it to be 29.50 lakh in 2021.
iv.According to WHO, the TB mortality rate (per 10,000) in 2021 was estimated to be 35, which reduced to 23 in 2022 as per the Indian model.
v.As per the Indian model’s suggestion TB mortality absolute numbers were to be 3.20 lakh in 2022 . The WHO estimated it to be 4.94 lakh in 2021.
vi.A total of 21.5 lakh cases were notified on the Nikshay portal in 2021 and 93,000 deaths were reported.
Other Key Data:
i.According to India TB Report 2023, a total of 23,58,664 patients were diagnosed with drug-susceptible TB (DSTB) in 2022. Of them, 22,48,816 (95.3%) were initiated on treatment. Among notified DSTB cases, 14,33,922 (60.8%) were male, 9,22,649 (39.1%) were female, and 1,34,001 (5.7%) were below 14 years of age.
- Among the persons diagnosed with DSTB in 2021, 85% had been successfully treated.
ii.2022 marks a record-high notification of 24.20 lakh cases of TB, an increase of over 13% compared to 2021, thus the case notification rate was about 172 cases per lakh population.
iii.The treatment initiation rate among the notified cases for 2022 was 95.5%. The highest case notification rate among States was seen in Delhi (546 per lakh population) and the lowest among States was seen in Kerala (67 per lakh population).