As per a study presented by researchers at Centre for International Development (CID) at Harvard University, India will be the base to the economic pole of global growth over the coming decade, remaining ahead of China.
Outlook for India:
The study mentioned that India and Uganda top the list of the fastest growing economies to 2025, at 7.7% annually.
- Researchers attribute India’s rapid growth prospects to the fact that it is particularly well-positioned to continue diversifying into new areas, given the capabilities accumulated to date.
- India has made inroads in diversifying its export base to include more complex sectors, such as chemicals, vehicles, and certain electronics
- India, Indonesia, and Vietnam have accumulated new capabilities that allow for more diverse and more complex production that predicts faster growth in the coming years
Observations pertaining to Global Economy and China:
The study has warned of a continued slowdown in global growth over the coming decade.
- Growth in emerging markets is predicted to continue to outpace that of advanced economies, though not uniformly.
- The projections are optimistic about new growth hubs in East Africa and new segments of South-East Asia, led by Indonesia and Vietnam.
- The growth projections are based on measures of each country’s economic complexity, which captures the diversity and sophistication of the productive capabilities embedded in its exports and the ease with which it could further diversify by expanding those capabilities.
- China’s economic complexity ranking has fallen for the first time since the global financial crisis.
- The growth projections still have China growing above the world average, at 4% annually for the coming decade.
Facts about Centre for International Development at Harvard University (CID):
The Center for International Development (CID) at Harvard University is a university-wide center that works to advance the understanding of development challenges and offer viable solutions to problems of global poverty.
- CID is Harvard’s leading research hub focusing on resolving the dilemmas of public policy associated with generating stable, shared, and sustainable prosperity in developing countries.
- Ricardo Hausmann is the current Director of CID.