On 24th April 2020, The Researchers of the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT)-Delhi developed a web-based mobile-friendly dashboard named Prediction and Assessment of Corona Infections and Transmission in India “PRACRITI” to predict the spread of Covid-19 in India and gives a state-wise and district-wise predictions.Key Points:
i.The dashboard development team was led by Prof. N M Anoop Krishnan of IIT Delhi’s Civil Engineering Department with Prof. Hariprasad Kodamana, along with Hargun Singh, Ravinder, Devansh Agarwal, Amreen Jan and Sourabh Singh – a team of volunteers from IIT-Delhi.
ii.The projections are given for a three-week period which is updated on a weekly basis which will be used by the healthcare institutes, local and central authorities to plan for the future.
iii.PRACRITI uses the data from the available resources like the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), and World Health Organisation (WHO) to provide the R0 (the basic reproduction number R0 and its countrywide variability, R0 refers to the number of people to whom the disease spreads from a single infected person. )values of each district and state.
iv.The effects of lockdown implemented in different levels in different states and districts are also taken in account by the model which helps in taking rigorous measures in the states having higher R0 and sustain measures in states with R0 value.
v.The prediction classifies the population into four categories using a newly developed mathematical model
- Susceptible: people who have not been exposed to coronavirus.
- Exposed: people who have been exposed to viruses from an infected person.
- Infected: people who are actively infected
- Removed: people who are no longer carriers of virus.
vi.The model will be updated on weekly basis to adapt to the effects like administrative interventions, virulence of viral strain, change of weather patterns which affects the accuracy in prediction.
About IIT Delhi:
Institution of national importance established through an Act for fostering excellence in education.
Director– V. Ramgopal Rao
Deputy Director (Operations)– T C Kandpal
Deputy Director (Strategy & Planning)– Ashok K Ganguli