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GDP grows 0.4% in Q3FY21, India exits technical recession:NSO

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GDP grows 0-4 per cent in December quarterIn accordance with the National Statistical Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) second advanced estimate, the growth of India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is estimated at 0.4% in Q3FY21 (October-December, 2020) stating India’s exit from technical recession.

  • GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q3 of 2020-21 is estimated at Rs 36.22 lakh crore, as against Rs 36.08 lakh crore in Q3 of 2019-20, showing a growth of 0.4%.
  • On the other hand, for FY 2020-21, the gross domestic product (GDP) would contract by 8%, the sharpest drop in recorded history, as per the second advance estimate; the contraction was previously seen at 7.7%.
  • For FY20 also, NSO lowered the economic growth to 4% from 4.2%.

Sector-Wise Growth in Q3FY21:

–The industry sector recorded a growth rate of 2.6% due to an improved performance of manufacturing, electricity and construction.

–Trade and hotel industry registered a contraction of 7.7%.

–Farm sector recorded a growth of 3.9% and the manufacturing sector output grew by 1.6%.

–The construction sector advanced by 6.2%, while electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services clocked a 7.3% growth.

–The services sector remained in a contraction with 0.9% fall year-on-year.

–The per capita income at current prices decreased 4.8% to around Rs 1.27 lakh in FY21 as compared to Rs 1.34 lakh in 2019-20.

–The contraction in Q1FY21 (April-June, 2020) was revised to 24.4% from 23.9% and for Q2FY21 it was revised to 7.3% from 7.5%.

–The output of eight core infrastructure sectors increased 0.1% in January 2021, compared to last year.

–The infrastructure output, which includes eight core sectors including coal, crude oil, and electricity, declined by 8.8% during April-January 2020-2021 against a growth rate of 0.8% in the same period of the previous year.


V-shaped Recovery is projected as per the NSO Data in the Q3 for FY 21.

Additional Info:

–RBI in its Monetary Policy Review presented on February 5, 2021 projected a GDP growth of 10.5% in FY22.

–India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) projected India’s GDP growth to 10.4% year on year (y-o-y) in FY22.

–The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects India to grow at 11.5% in FY22.

–Moody revised its forecast to a -7% for FY21 from -10%.

Recent Related News:

i.Indian economy is projected to contract by 7.7% in FY21, as per the first advance estimates of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) by NSO, MoSPI.

ii.In accordance with the report by rating agency ICRA (formerly Investment Information and Credit Rating Agency of India Limited), India’s real GDP (Gross Domestic Product) will expand by 10.1% in FY2022 with multi-speed recovery.

About Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI):
Minister of State (MoS), Independent Charge – Rao Inderjit Singh