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WTO raised 2021 Global Trade Volume Forecast to 10.8% from 8%

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WTO raises 2021 global trade volume forecast to 10-8%

On October 4, 2021, the World Trade Organization (WTO) upgraded its global merchandise trade volume growth to 10.8% in 2021 which is an upward revision from 8% forecasted in March 2021.

  • For 2022, this growth will slow to 4.7% which is still an increase from the previous forecast of 4%.

Forecast for 2021:

i.Quarterly trade growth was up 22% year-on-year in Q2FY21 but it is expected to slow to 10.9% in Q3 and 6.6% by Q4.

ii.Global GDP (Gross Domestic Product) will grow 5.3%, up from 5.1% forecasted in March 2021.

iii.Market-weighted GDP growth of 5.3% in 2021 and 4.1% in 2022.

iv.There will  be predominance in downside risks including strained global supply chains and COVID-19 outbreaks.

v.Services trade is likely to lag behind goods trade, particularly in travel and leisure.

Export-Import Forecast 2021:

i.Export volume growth will be at 8.7% in North America, 7.2% in South America, 9.7% in Europe, 0.6% in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), 7% in Africa, 5% in West Asia, and 14.4% in Asia.

ii.Imports are set to grow by 12.6% in North America, 19.9% in South America, 9.1% in Europe, 13.1% in the CIS, 11.3% in Africa, 9.3% in West Asia, and 10.7% in Asia.

iii.Exports and imports of least developed countries (LDCs) are estimated to increase by 5.3% and 5.5%, respectively, in 2021.

Forecast for 2022:

i.Global GDP growth is estimated to 4.1% in 2022, up from 3.8% previously.

ii.Imports will have risen by 14.2% in Asia (compared to 2019) , 11.9% in North America, 10.8% in South and Central America, 9.4% in Europe, 8.2% in Africa, 5.7% in CIS and 5.4% in the Middle East.

iii.Exports will also grow in Asia (18.8%), North America (8.0%), Europe (7.8%), CIS (6.2%), South America (4.8%), the Middle East (2.9%) and Africa (1.9%).

Recent Related News:

A recently released World Trade Organization (WTO) report has ranked India 9th (holding 3.1% share in global agriculture exports) among the Top 10 list of Agricultural produce exporters in 2019. The European Union (EU) with a global share of 16.1% has replaced the US as the World’s largest Agriculture produce exporter (13.8%).

About World Trade Organization (WTO):
Director-General– Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala
Members– 164 (including India)
Headquarters– Geneva, Switzerland