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World Energy Outlook 2022: IEA Predicts Global Emissions to Peak in 2025

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International Energy Agency sees global emissions peaking in 2025According to the World Energy Outlook 2022, released by the International Energy Agency (IEA), global emissions will reach their peak in 2025 as rising energy prices brought on by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine encourage investment in Renewable Energy sources.

World Energy Outlook (WEO)

  • The WEO, a flagship publication of the IEA, has been published annually since 1998 and is the most reliable source of analysis and projections in the energy sector.
  • It offers crucial insights into the global energy supply & demand under many scenarios, as well as the implications for energy security, climate targets, and economic development.

World Energy Outlook 2022 (WEO 2022)

i.According to the WEO 2022, the commitments made in the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) result in a faster reduction in emissions in the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS).

  • Global emissions reach their peak before 2025 and drop to 31.5 Gigatonnes (Gt) of Carbon dioxide (CO2) in 2030, which is roughly 15% less than in the Scenario of Stated Policies (STEPS).

ii.The scenario in the report is based on current policy conditions, which forecast a clear peak in global demand for fossil fuels.

  • Russia’s invasion of Ukraine created the current global energy crisis, which has the potential to speed the transition to a more secure and sustainable energy system.

iii.The IEA predicts that global Renewable Energy investment would increase by more than 50% from 2020 levels to USD 2 trillion per year by 2030.

  • The recent actions and policies announced by countries in response to rising energy prices will encourage continued advancements in nuclear and renewable energy.

iv.Global CO2 emissions are then expected to gradually decline from a high of 37 billion tonnes per year to 32 billion tonnes by 2050.

Key Forecasts in The Report:

i.According to the report, the demand for all forms of fossil fuels is expected to peak or plateau.

  • Coal consumption, which has temporarily increased, will drop down in the coming years as more renewables arrive.
  • Natural gas will reach a plateau at the end of the decade, rather than rising steadily as previously predicted.
  • Instead of a constant increase, Oil demand will level off in the mid-2030s and then gradually decrease towards the 2050 due to the adoption of electric vehicles.

ii.According to the STEPS, the share of fossil fuels in the global energy mix would shrink from 80% in 2022 (a level that has been constant for decades) to less than 75% by 2030 and just above 60% by 2050.

  • This will still keep the world on track for an increase in global temperatures of around 5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, which is expected to have drastic impacts on climate change.

iii.The IEA also proposes a scenario for reaching ‘Net Zero Emissions’ in 2050, which is viewed as crucial to meet the 1.5 degrees Celsius warming target of the Paris climate Agreement.

  • To achieve it, investments in clean energy have to be increased from the current forecast of USD 2 trillion per year to USD 4 trillion annually by 2030.

Recent Related News:

i.According to a new study published in the scientific journal Nature Climate Change, India’s updated climate pledge to the Paris Agreement has been ranked 5th in compliance and 4th in ambition. The study includes eight countries, the US, China, Australia, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Australia, Brazil—as well as the EU.

ii.While the European Union (EU) claimed the top spot, the United States (US) was placed bottom in compliance and second to last in ambition.

About the International Energy Agency (IEA):

Executive Director – Fatih Birol
Headquarters – Paris, France
Established – 1974