According to the State Bank of India (SBI)’s Economic Research Department (ERD) report titled “Precursor to Census 2024: The Fine Prints of a Rapidly Changing Nation”, the average annual exponential growth of India’s population is on a downward trajectory and is expected to decline from 2.20% (in 1971) to 1% (in 2024), placing India’s population in the range of 138 to 142 crore in 2024.
- This projection of decline in growth rate indicates that the population will accelerate at a comparatively lower pace over the next decade.
- The report has also projected that the median age of India will increase from 24 years (in 2021) to 28-29 years (in 2023/24). Thus, India continues to be one of the youngest nations in the world and is still below the global median age.
Points to Note:
i.The 1st census exercise was conducted during the British Colonial-Era in 1872.
ii.The last decadal census was conducted in 2011 and the latest census i.e. 2021 census was delayed due to COVID-19 Pandemic and has been held since then.
Key Findings:
Working Age Population:
i.As per the report, the working-age population in India has seen an increasing trend since 1971 and is estimated to reach 64.4% in the soon-to-be exercised Census i.e. 2024 Census. This trend is further expected to increase to 65.2% in 2031.
ii.The report also noted that the working age population of people in the age bracket of 15 to 29 years, has increased from 55.4% (in 1991) to 56.9% (in 2001), then further increased to 60.7% in 2021.
iii.As per the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), currently about 67% of India’s population is in the working age group.
- It has projected that nearly 25% of the incremental global workforce over the next decade will come from India. India’s working age population might exceed 100 crores mark by 2030.
Population Growth:
i.According to SBI’s ERD report, the proportion of children in the age group of 0 to 14 years is projected to be 24.3% in 2024, whereas, it was 30.9% in 2011, indicating a continuing reversal trend that started in 1971.
ii.The report observed that the share of elderly persons has been steadily increasing since 1951 and is estimated to reach 10.7% in 2024 and will further increase to 13.1% by 2031.
- It also estimated that in 2024, the elderly population will cross 15 crore(comprising 7.7 crore female and 7.3 crore male), with a growth of 4.6 crore during 2011-2024.
- The report showed that elderly population saw an increase of over 2.7 crore during 2001-2011.
iii.The report showed that the share of population of age 60 years and above has been rising in India, from 7.3% (1991) to 7.7% (2001), 8.4% (2011), and is expected to increase to 10.7% in 2024 census.
Share of Southern States in Population Growth to Decline:
i.The report estimated that the contribution of Southern region in incremental population growth will decline in 2021 Census as compared to the 2011 Census, due to low growth in states like: Tamil Nadu (TN), Andhra Pradesh (AP), and Telangana.
ii.While, Northern states continue to be the major population driver, with Uttar Pradesh (UP) and Bihar estimated to contribute approximately 33% of total incremental population.
iii.As per the report, North and Eastern regions together have around 52% share in entire population, as compared to 51% in 2011.
- While individually, the eastern and southern regions indicate a decline in share compared to numbers from over a decade ago.
State-wise Elderly Population Share:
i.According to the Report of the Technical Group on Population Projections for India and States 2011-2036, which provides state-wise data on elderly population of 21 major states, revealed that there was around 13.8 crore elderly persons in India in 2021, comprising 6.7 crore males and 7.1 crore females.
ii.Kerala (16.5%) accounts for the maximum share of elderly people in its population, followed by TN (13.6%), Himachal Pradesh (HP) (13.1%), Punjab (12.6%) and AP (12.4%) in 2021.
iii.While, the states which have least share of elderly people in population are: Bihar (7.7%), followed by UP (8.1%) and Assam (8.2%).
iv.The report revealed that the combined share of West Bengal (WB), Maharashtra, UP account 26%, in terms of incremental growth in elderly population for the 13 year period ending in 2024.
Rapid Growth of Urbanisation in India:
i.The report found urbanisation is increasing rapidly in India. As per the Census 2011, India’s urban population was 3.1% of the total population and is expected to increase to 35% to 37% in census 2024.
- Also, the share of Indian population in urban agglomerates of over 1 million has increased from 14.3% (in 2014) to 16.6% (in 2023).
ii.The NCT of Delhi and Chandigarh, are the most urbanized States and Union Territories (UTs), with 99.7% and 100% urban population respectively, followed by Daman and Diu (96.1%) and Puducherry (70.4%).
iii.Among the North-Eastern (NE) states, Mizoram is most urbanized with 55.2% urban population, followed by Sikkim (almost 51%).
iv.States with lowest urban population are: HP (10.3%), Bihar (12.4%), Assam(15.7%) and Odisha (19.0%).
v.Among the major states, TN has maintained its position as the most urbanized state with 54%of urban population followed by Maharashtra (48.8%).
vi.The report noted that due to rapid increase in the level of urbanization, the number of million-plus cities are increasing, for instance, there were only 18 million-plus cities in 1991 census, which had increased to 52 in 2011 census.
- The report expected that in 2024 census around 75 to 80 cities would have a million plus population.
