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India to be Largest Source of Energy Demand Growth to 2040: IEA’s India Energy Outlook 2021

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India to be largest source of energy demand growth to 2040 - IEAIn accordance with the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) “India Energy Outlook 2021”, India will surpass European Union as the world’s third-biggest energy consumer by 2030. In this regard, India energy demand growth share will be maximum at 25% in the next two decades.

  • As per India’s current national policy scenario, its gross domestic product (GDP) expands to an estimated $8.6 trillion by 2040 thereby the energy consumption is expected to be nearly doubled.
  • Also, there is a need to spend an additional $1.4 trillion by India to adopt clean energy technologies over the next 20 years.

Key Figures:

–An increase in India’s oil demand is projected to 8.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2040 from about 5 million bpd in 2019.

–Also, there will rise in its refining capacity to 6.4 million bpd by 2030 and 7.7 million bpd by 2040, from 5 million bpd.


Oil: India is world’s second-biggest net oil importer after China currently imports about 76% of its crude oil needs. That reliance on overseas oil is expected to rise to 90% by 2030 and 92% by 2040

  • In other terms, India’s oil demand could be doubled t o about $181 billion by 2030 and nearly treble it to $255 billion by 2040 compared with 2019.
  • Despite the Indian government policies to promote petroleum exploration and production and renewable energy, domestic oil and gas production has been stagnant for years. Therefore there is a possibility of import dependence for fossil fuels.

LNG: India, the world’s 4th largest Liquefied natural gas (LNG) importer is spending billions dollars to build infrastructure to boost use of the cleaner fuel.

  • Its imports are expected to quadruple to 124 billion cubic metres (bcm), or about 61% of overall gas demand by 2040. That would be up from imports of 76 bcm, or about 58% of gas consumption by 2030.

Key Points:

–Energy use has doubled since 2000. This is set to grow about 35% until 2030.

–India will see the addition of 13 new cities like Mumbai in urban population which will boost the demand for cement, steel, electricity.

–By 2040, India’s power system will be world’s third-largest in terms of electricity generation.

–India also has 30% more installed renewables capacity than the United States (US).

–India currently accounts for 16% of the global coal trade.

Recent Related News:

i.According to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) report, Renewables 2020 – Analysis and Forecast to 2025, India’s Renewable Energy sector will see the largest growth after COVID-19. India will double its green energy capacity addition in 2021 compared to 2020 levels.

ii.On 27th January 2021, Government of India has signed a Framework for Strategic partnership agreement with the IEA that will play a crucial role in enhancing global energy security. This initiative will pave the way for India to become a full time member of IEA.

About International Energy Agency (IEA):

Executive Director – Dr Fatih Birol
Headquarters – Paris, France
Members Countries– 30 member countries and 8 association countries