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The Global Economy in 2018
Economists like me are asked a set of recurring questions that might inform the choices of firms, individuals, and institutions in areas like investment, education, and jobs, as well as their policy expectations. In most cases, there is no definitive answer. But, with sufficient information, one can discern trends, in terms of economies, markets, and technology, and make reasonable guesses.
In the developed world, 2017 will likely be recalled as a period of stark contrast, with many economies experiencing growth acceleration, alongside political fragmentation, polarization, and tension, both domestically and internationally. In the long run, it is unlikely that economic performance will be immune to centrifugal political and social forces. Yet, so far, markets and economies have shrugged off political disorder, and the risk of a substantial short-term setback seems relatively small.
The one exception is the United Kingdom, which now faces a messy and divisive Brexit process. Elsewhere in Europe, Germany’s severely weakened chancellor, Angela Merkel, is struggling to forge a coalition government. None of this is good for the UK or the rest of Europe, which desperately needs France and Germany to work together to reform the European Union.
One potential shock that has received much attention relates to monetary tightening. In view of improving economic performance in the developed world, a gradual reversal of aggressively accommodative monetary policy does not appear likely to be a major drag or shock to asset values. Perhaps the long-awaited upward convergence of economic fundamentals to validate market valuations is within reach.
In Asia, Chinese President Xi Jinping is in a stronger position than ever, suggesting that effective management of imbalances and more consumption- and innovation-driven growth can be expected. India also appears set to sustain its growth and reform momentum. As these economies grow, so will others throughout the region and beyond.
When it comes to technology, especially digital technology, China and the United States seem set to dominate for years to come, as they continue to fund basic research, reaping major benefits when innovations are commercialized. These two countries are also home to the major platforms for economic and social interaction, which benefit from network effects, closure of informational gaps, and, perhaps most important, artificial-intelligence capabilities and applications that use and generate massive sets of valuable data.
- Recurring – बार-बार आने वाला
Meaning – occur again periodically or repeatedly.
Synonyms – happen again, reoccur, occur again, be repeated, repeat (itself); happen repeatedly, come and go; come back (again), return, come round (again); reappear, appear again, flare up; rarerecrudesce.
Usage –when the symptoms recurred, the doctor diagnosed something different.
2. Stark – पूर्ण रूप से
Meaning – complete; sheer.
Synonyms – sheer, utter, complete, absolute, total, pure, perfect, positive, downright, out-and-out, outright; thorough, thoroughgoing, through and through, consummate, surpassing, veritable, rank, unequivocal, undeniable, unqualified, unmitigated, unalloyed, unadulterated, unmixed.
Usage – he came running back in stark terror.
3. Polarization – ध्रुवीकरण
Meaning – division into two sharply contrasting groups or sets of opinions or beliefs.
Usage – the polarization of society between rich and poor.
4. Centrifugal – केंद्रत्यागी
Meaning – moving or tending to move away from a centre.
5. Discern – देख लेना
Meaning – distinguish (someone or something) with difficulty by sight or with the other senses.
Synonyms – perceive, make out, pick out, detect, recognize, notice, observe, see, spot; identify, determine, distinguish, differentiate, discriminate, tell apart; become cognizant of, become aware of, become conscious of; literarydescry, espy.
Usage – she could faintly discern the shape of a skull.
6. Coalition – गठबंधन
Meaning – a temporary alliance for combined action, especially of political parties forming a government.
Synonyms – alliance, union, partnership, affiliation, bloc, caucus; federation, league, association, confederacy, confederation, consortium, syndicate, combine, entente, alignment; amalgamation, merger; conjunction, combination, fusion.
Usage – a coalition between Liberals and Conservatives.
7. Convergence – संमिलन
Meaning – the process or state of converging.
Usage – the convergence of lines in the distance.
8. Momentum – गति
Meaning – the impetus gained by a moving object.
Usage – the vehicle gained momentum as the road dipped.
9. Interaction – बातचीत
Meaning – reciprocal action or influence.
Usage – ongoing interaction between the two languages.
10. Massive – बड़ा
Meaning – large and heavy or solid.
Synonyms – huge, enormous, gigantic, very big, very large, great, giant, colossal, mammoth, vast, immense, tremendous, mighty, stupendous, monumental, epic, prodigious, mountainous, monstrous, titanic, towering, elephantine.
Usage – a massive rampart of stone