According to the inaugural edition of Asian Development Bank (ADB)’s report titled “Asia-Pacific Climate Report 2024: Catalyzing Finance and Policy Solutions”, climate change under a high-end emissions scenarios could potentially lead to 16.9% loss in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2070 across the Asia-Pacific region, with India projected to witness a 24.7% GDP decline.
- It has further estimated that Asia-Pacific will experience 41% loss in GDP by 2100.
- The report has outlined rising sea levels and decreasing labour productivity would attribute the most significant losses, with lower-income and vulnerable economies being affected the most.
- The report has cautioned that if the climate crisis continues to accelerate, then up to 300 million people in the region could be at risk from coastal inundation and trillions of dollars’ worth of coastal assets could face annual damage by 2070.
Key Findings:
i.Among the countries and sub-regions assessed by the report, these losses are prominent in Bangladesh (30.5%), Vietnam (30.2%), Indonesia (26.8%), India (24.7), the rest of Southeast Asia’ (23.4%), higher-income Southeast Asia (22%), Pakistan (21.1%), the Pacific (18.6%), and the Philippines (18.1%).
ii.The report highlighted that Developing Asia has accounted for most of the increase in global Green House Gas (GHG) emissions since 2000.
- While developed economies were major GHG emitters throughout the 20th century, emissions from developing Asia have increased more rapidly than those from any other region in the 1st two decades of the 21st Century.
- This increase was mainly driven by increasing domestic consumptions, energy demand, and production for developed economies. China accounted for nearly 66% of this increase, followed by South Asia (19.3%) and Southeast Asia (15.4%).
iii.As per the report, the share of global GHG emissions by the Asia-Pacific region has increased from 29.4% (in 2000) to 45.9% (in 2021).
- While, emissions from emerging Asia continue to increase, led primarily by China, which accounted for about 30% of global GHG emissions in 2021.
iv.The report highlighted that the Asia-Pacific region is home to 60% of world’s population, with per capita emissions still below the average but still it will experience the intensified and more variable rainfall, along with increasingly severe storms, that will further lead to more frequent landslides and floods in the region.
- This will be occurring mostly in mountainous and steeply sloped areas like: the border area of India and China, where landslides are projected to increase by 30-70% under 4.7 degrees Celsius of mean global warming.
v.The leading models used by the report have indicated that trillions of dollars in annual capital damage from riverine flooding is expected to occur in the Asia-Pacific region by 2070.
- It has estimated that annual capital damage, in line with economic growth, will reach USD 1.3 trillion annually by 2070, affecting more than 110 million people annually.
vi.The report projected that the GDP loss for the region in 2070 from reduced labour productivity will be at 4.9%, with tropical and subtropical locations being the most impacted.
- These include the rest of the Southeast Asia region (11.9%), India (11.6%), Pakistan (10.4%), and Vietnam (8.5%).
vii.The report has estimated that the GDP loss for the region in 2070 due to increased riverine flooding under a high-end emissions climate scenario, will be at 2.2%.
- As per the report, due to increased riverine flooding, countries with mega-deltas will witness the most significant losses in terms of GDP, like: Bangladesh (8.25%), the rest of Southeast Asia (6.6%) and Vietnam (6.7%). Indonesia and India each will face a GDP loss of around 4%.
Key Recommendations:
i.It has recommended that mitigation must be increased to limit long term losses, along with adaptation strategies must also be accelerated to counter impacts that will not be avoided.
ii.It has estimated that regional countries requires annual investment for climate change adaptation between USD 102 billion and USD 431 billion, which is more than the nearly USD 34 billion adaptation finance mobilized in the region in 2021-22.
iii.The report has outlined that carbon pricing is critical to reducing emissions cost effectively.
- It has highlighted there is increasing support for carbon pricing, including 6 national Emissions Trading Systems (ETS) being developed in the region, but its effectiveness is reduced by continued support for fossil fuel subsidies.
About Asian Development Bank(ADB):
President– Masatsugu Asakawa(Japan)
Headquarters– Manila, the Philippines
Members Nations- 69 (49 members nations are from Asia-Pacific region)
Established– 1966
