On 10th October 2024, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) released its latest bi-annual trade outlook titled “Global Trade Outlook and Statistics: October 2024”. It has reduced its previous projection of world merchandise trade growth from 3.3% to 3% in 2025.
- While, it increased its merchandise trade growth projection for the year 2024 to 2.7%, up from its previous estimate of 2.6%.
- The WTO has cautioned about the escalating conflict in the West Asia region and increased economic policy uncertainty which continue to pose significant downside risks to the forecast.
Key Findings:
i.The report has also projected that the global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth at market exchange rates will remain at 2.7% for both 2024 and 2025.
ii.The report highlighted that global merchandise trade witnessed a growth of 2.3% with Year-on-Year (Y-o-Y) increase in the 1st half of 2024. This rebound came against the backdrop of a slump of 1.1% in 2023, driven by high inflation and increasing interest rates.
iii.The report has estimated that merchandise exports of Least-Developed Countries (LDCs) will increase by 1.8% in 2024, compared to 4.6% growth registered in 2023.
- While, the export growth of LDCs is expected to grow by 3.7% in 2025.
- It has projected that LDC imports will grow by 5.9% and 5.6% in 2024 and 2025 respectively.
- These estimates are underpinned by GDP growth estimates for LDCs of 3.3% (in 2023), 4.3% (in 2024) and 4.7% (in 2025).
Regional Trade Outlook:
i.As per WTO report, export volumes of Asia will grow faster than any other region in the world, increasing by as much as 7.4% in 2024.
- Asian exports witnessed a strong rebound in the 1st half of 2024, which is driven by major manufacturing economies such as China, Singapore, and the Republic of Korea. However, export growth of Japan is expected to remain stagnant in 2024 following a contraction in 2023.
- The WTO noted that exports from India and Vietnam are increasing, which indicates towards their emerging roles “connecting” economies.
ii.WTO projected that Europe will register a decline of 1.4% in export volumes in 2024 meanwhile, imports will decrease by 2.3%.
- This similar trend has been witnessed in geopolitically aligned economies, affecting imports from the United States of America (USA), the Republic of Korea and Japan.
About World Trade Organisation (WTO):
Director-General (DG)- Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala
Headquarters- Geneva, Switzerland
Established- 1995
