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ICRA Predicts India’s GDP forecast for FY22 to 10-10.5% down by 0.5%

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Icra cuts its FY22 GDP estimate by

On April 20, 2021, the Information and Credit Rating Agency of India Limited (ICRA) reduced India’s GDP growth forecast for FY22 by 0.5 per cent i.e. projected growth to a range of 10-10.5 per cent, against 10-11 per cent of its earlier estimation due to the surge in COVID-19 cases and the localized restrictions.

  • It also mitigated the GDP growth for Q1 FY22 (April-June 2021), from 27.5 per cent to 20-25 per cent

Nomura’s Projection: 

  • Nomura, a Japanese brokerage has specified a rise in India’s ‘Oxford Stringency Index’ to 69.9 as of April 13, 2021, from 57.9 at the start of previous week.
  • It also decreased the proprietary business resumption index to 90.4 for the week ended April 11, 2021, from 93.7 on April 4, 2021.

Note – In March 2021 the India’s economic activity recorded a broad-based and sharp improvement.

Downgraded projection of India’s GDP growth by Brokerages:

Brokerage Current GDP growth forecast % for FY22  Earlier Forecast %
 

Nomura

12.6% 13.5%
JP Morgan 11 %  13%
UBS 10% 11.5%
Citi 12%  –

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has projected FY’22 GDP growth at 10.5 per cent, while International Monetary Fund (IMF) puts it at 12.5 per cent. The World Bank sees 2021-22 growth at 10.1 per cent.

Recent Related News:

Following the National Statistical Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) second advance estimate, the growth of India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is estimated at 0.4% in Q3FY21 (October-December, 2020) stating India’s exit from the technical recession.

About Information and Credit Rating Agency of India Limited (ICRA):

It is owned by Moody’s Corporation
Establishment – 1991
Headquarters – Gurgaon, Haryana
MD & Group CEO – Mr. N. Sivaraman