On April 20, 2021, the Information and Credit Rating Agency of India Limited (ICRA) reduced India’s GDP growth forecast for FY22 by 0.5 per cent i.e. projected growth to a range of 10-10.5 per cent, against 10-11 per cent of its earlier estimation due to the surge in COVID-19 cases and the localized restrictions.
- It also mitigated the GDP growth for Q1 FY22 (April-June 2021), from 27.5 per cent to 20-25 per cent
Nomura’s Projection:
- Nomura, a Japanese brokerage has specified a rise in India’s ‘Oxford Stringency Index’ to 69.9 as of April 13, 2021, from 57.9 at the start of previous week.
- It also decreased the proprietary business resumption index to 90.4 for the week ended April 11, 2021, from 93.7 on April 4, 2021.
Note – In March 2021 the India’s economic activity recorded a broad-based and sharp improvement.
Downgraded projection of India’s GDP growth by Brokerages:
| Brokerage | Current GDP growth forecast % for FY22 | Earlier Forecast % |
|---|---|---|
| Nomura | 12.6% | 13.5% |
| JP Morgan | 11 % | 13% |
| UBS | 10% | 11.5% |
| Citi | 12% | – |
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has projected FY’22 GDP growth at 10.5 per cent, while International Monetary Fund (IMF) puts it at 12.5 per cent. The World Bank sees 2021-22 growth at 10.1 per cent.
Recent Related News:
Following the National Statistical Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) second advance estimate, the growth of India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is estimated at 0.4% in Q3FY21 (October-December, 2020) stating India’s exit from the technical recession.
About Information and Credit Rating Agency of India Limited (ICRA):
It is owned by Moody’s Corporation
Establishment – 1991
Headquarters – Gurgaon, Haryana
MD & Group CEO – Mr. N. Sivaraman
