On April 27, 2020, India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra), the Indian subsidiary of Fitch group,has revised India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecasts for the fiscal year 2020-21 (FY 21) to 1.9 % from 3.6% estimated earlier due to the impact of coronavirus (Covid-19) on the economy.Key Points:
i.The ratings, which is lowest in the last 29 years, based on the assumption that the partial lockdown will continue till mid-May 2020. However, if the lockdown continues even after mid-May, the country will register a negative growth of 2.1% lowest in the last 41 years, and only the sixth instance of contraction since fiscal year 1957-58.
ii.It is noteworthy that in the financial year 1991-92, the pace of economic growth of the country was just 1.1 %.
iii.As per Ind-Ra, India’s GDP will revive to the fourth quarter (Q4) of FY20 level only by third quarter-Q3 (October-December) of current FY21, expecting the resumption of normal economic activities during Q2 (July-September) of 2020-21 and festive demand during Q3 of FY21.
About India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra):
Headquarters– Mumbai, Maharashtra.
MD & CEO– Rohit karan Sawhney