According to the “Global Trade Outlook and Statistics: April 2024” report released by the World Trade Organization(WTO), the global merchandise trade volume is projected to grow by 2.6% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025 as demand for traded goods rebounds following a contraction in 2023.
Note: Regional conflicts, geopolitical tensions and economic policy uncertainty pose downside risks to the forecast.
Key Findings of Report:
i.In October 2023, WTO projected world merchandise trade volume to grow 0.8% in 2023.
ii.High energy prices and inflation continued to influence the demand for manufactured goods resulting in a 1.2% decline in world merchandise trade volume for 2023.
iii.In terms of value, world merchandise trade fell 5% in 2023 to USD 24.01 trillion. The decline was offset by a strong increase in commercial services trade, which rose 9% to USD 7.54 trillion.
iv.The decline in merchandise exports was partly due to falling prices for commodities, such as oil and gas.
Key points:
i.Countries which witnessed a decline in exports in 2023 are Russia(-28%), China(-5%), Japan(-4%) and the Republic of Korea(-8%).
ii.Other major economies which saw a smaller decline or marginal increase in exports are the United States of America(USA) (-2%), Germany (+1%) and Mexico (+3%).
iii.Compared to other countries, the European Union (EU)(taken as a whole) saw a growth of 2% while intra-EU trade was down 1%,
vii.All major economies saw a decline in imports except the United Arab Emirates (UAE) (+7%), Russia (+10%) and Saudi Arabia (+11%).
India-Specific:
i.As per the report, India’s merchandise export for 2023 was USD 432 billion which is 5% lower than 2022. India’s imports fell 7% to USD 673 billion.
ii.India clocked USD 451 billion goods export in FY23 and USD 394.99 billion in April-February FY24.
iii.In 2023, India’s share of global goods exports was 1.8% and imports was 2.8%.
iv.India’s share in digitally delivered services increased to 6% in 2023 from 4.4% in 2019.
iv.In global commercial services, India’s share in exports was 4.4% in 2023 at USD 344 billion, up 11% on-year whereas imports were flat at USD 247 billion.
About World Trade Organization(WTO):
Director-General(DG)- Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala
Headquarters- Geneva, Switzerland
Member nations- 164
Established in 1995
