The National Commission on Population under the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW) submitted the Report of the Technical group on population projections July 2020, titled “Population projections for India and States 2011- 2036”. The report projected that the India’s sex ratio of the total population (females per 1000 males) is expected to be more feminine in 2036 compared to the population as of 2011.
Population projections for India and States 2011- 2036:
i.The report estimates the sex ratio to increase from 943 in 2011 to 957 in 2036.
ii.Compared to 2011, the sex ratio in 18 states except Kerala, Karnataka, Maharashtra and Gujarat are expected to increase by 2036.
iii.In 2036, the lowest sex ratio of 899 is expected to be in NCT of Delhi, followed by 900 in Gujarat and 908 in Haryana.
Infant Mortality Rate:
i.India’s Infant Mortality Rate(IMR) is reported to be 46 in 2010 which is expected to reduce to 30 by the end of 2031-2035.
ii.The report projects the IMR to reduce in all the state of India in 2011 to 2035.
Madhya Pradesh has the highest IMR at 58 followed by Uttar Pradesh with 57 in 2011-2015 which is expected to come down to 37 and 38 in MP and UP respectively in 2031-35.
iii.During 2031-35, the IMR is expected to be in between 30-40 in Rajasthan, Assam, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, MP and UP.
iv.Kerala is expected to have the lowest IMR at 9 in 2031-35 followed by Tamil Nadu from 22 in 2011-15 to 16 during 2031-35.
i.Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is expected to decline from 2.34 during 2011-2015 to 1.73 during 2031- 35.
ii.The declining fertility rate will change the age demographics of India’s population and increase the medium age from 24.9 in 2011 to 34.5 in 2036.
iii.Bihar and UP have the higher TFR with 3.5 and 3.7 respectively which is higher than the TFR of India (2.5).
Population of India:
i.The report projects India’s population to increase by 25.7% in 25 years at a rate of 1% annually i.e., from 121.1 crore to 151.8 crore during 2011-36.
ii.The population density will increase from 368 to 463 persons per square kilometer.
iii.As per the 2011 Census India’s population was 1.21 billion which is estimated to grow by 311 million by 2036.
i.Youth population (15-24 years) is expected to increase from 23.3 crores in 2011 to 25.2 crores in 2021 and then continue to decrease to 22.7 crores in 2036.
ii.The youth population proportion to the total population is expected to become 14.9%in 2036.
Decline in rate of population growth:
The population growth rate will decline by 8.4% during 2021-2031.
The report projects that India will overtake China and become the most populated county around 2031.
i.The urban population of India was 31.8% in 2011 which is projected to increase to 38.2% by 2036 which contributes 73% of the total population growth by 2036.
ii.Delhi with 98% urban population in 2011 is expected to become 100% urban by 2036.
iii.Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Maharashtra, Telangana and Gujarat are expected to have more than 50% urban population by 2036.
i.For men the life expectancy is expected to increase from 66 to 69 and for women it is expected to increase from 71 to 74.
ii.Kerala could become the only Indian state to have life expectancy above 80 for women and 74 for men by 2036.
iii.The Northeastern states are estimated to have a life expectancy of 77 for women and 73 for men by 2036.
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About Ministry of Health and Family Welfare(MoHFW):
Union Minister– Harsh Vardhan
Minister of State– Ashwini Kumar Choubey