According to the ‘World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) 2024 – Mid Year Update,’ published by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN-DESA), India’s economy is estimated to expand by 6.9% in 2024. This is an upward revision from the 6.2% Gross domestic product (GDP) forecast made by the UN in January 2024.
- India’s GDP Growth projection for 2025 remains unchanged at 6.6%.
- This growth is driven by strong public investment and resilient private consumption, despite subdued external demand impacting merchandise exports.
- The report also anticipates a deceleration of consumer price inflation in India from 5.6% in 2023 to 4.5% in 2024. This is in line with the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) 2% to 6% medium-term target range.
Note: The report is prepared by the Global Economic Monitoring Branch in the Economic Analysis and Policy Division of UN-DESA.
Regional Front Scenario – South Asia:
South Asia’s economic outlook remains robust, with support from India’s strong performance, and slight recovery in Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
i.Asia’s GDP growth forecast revised upwards to 5.8% in 2024, and 5.7% in 2025
ii.Consumer price inflation expected to decrease from 13.9% in 2023 to 10.5% in 2024 to 7.4% in 2025. This is due to the following:
- Easing currency depreciation pressures
- Moderation of agricultural commodity prices due to weakening of El Niño
Global Scenario:
Global economy projected to grow by 2.7% in 2024 (up by 0.3 percentage points from January 2024 forecast), and by 2.8% in 2025 (up by 0.1 percentage points).
i.The upward revision is driven by the improved prospects in the United States (US), India, and Brazil
ii.On the other hand challenges are being faced by economies in Africa, Latin America, and the Caribbean which includes Low growth trajectory, High inflation, Elevated borrowing costs, Persistent exchange rate pressures, and Lingering political instability.
iii.Global trade expected to recover in 2024 despite Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Disruptions in the Red Sea, and Escalating freight costs remains challenging.
iv.GDP growth for SIDS projected to improve from 2.4% in 2023 to 3.3% in 2024 amid a sustained rebound in tourism.
Other Agency’s Ratings for India in FY25:
- Moody’s Ratings: Indian economy growth pegged at 6.6%
- Deloitte: Projects Indian economy growth at 6.6%
- RBI: Projects 7% growth
- S&P Global Ratings and Morgan Stanley: Project a growth rate of 6.8%
- Asian Development Bank (ADB) and Fitch Ratings: Estimate growth at 7%
Recent Related News:
i.The World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO), an agency of the United Nations, published the 16th edition of the Global Innovation Index (2023). India retains 40th rank among 132 economies. While Switzerland secured the top spot in the rankings, with Sweden and the United States of America (USA) following closely.
ii.The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) released a report titled ‘The Impact of Disasters on Agriculture and Food Security 2023-Avoiding and reducing losses through investment in resilience‘ which is the first–ever global estimation of the impact of disasters on agricultural production focused on crops and livestock.
About United Nations Department of Economic & Social Affairs (UN-DESA):
Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs– Li Junhua
Headquarters– New York, United States
Establishment– 1948
