The Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) Asian Development Outlook April 2023, has reduced India’s GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth forecast for the Financial year 2022- 2023 (FY23) to 6.4% from 7% of its earlier projection.
- India’s GDP growth forecast for FY24 was projected at 6.7% due to improvement in private investment and growth in the industry.
Asian Development Outlook April 2023:
|
| GDP Growth Rate (% Per Year) | Inflation (% per year) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
| Developing Asia | 7.2 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 3.3 |
| South Asia | 8.4 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 5.8 |
| India | 9.1 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 5.0 | 4.5 |
ADB’s Projection for India:
Economic Performance:
i.Growth: The Indian economy is estimated to have grown by 6.8% in fiscal year 2022 (FY2022, ending 31 March 2023).
- On the supply side, GDP growth was supported by agriculture, up by 3.3%, and services, up by 8.8%.
- Trade, hotels, transport, and communication grew robustly by an estimated 14.0%. Manufacturing grew positive at 0.6%.
iii.Inflation: Headline inflation exceeded the inflation target range of 2%–6%, averaging 6.8% in the first 10 months of FY22. At its highest, it reached 7.8% in April 2022.
- The food inflation was at an average of 6.9% in the first 10 months of FY22, while fuel inflation remained in double digits, averaging 10.6%.
iv.Banking: Bank credit for agriculture and allied activities grew by 14.4% and for services by 21.5%, but for industry the growth was only by 8.7%.
- Personal loans grew by 20.4%. The lending rate for fresh rupee loans increased by 137 basis points from April 2022 to reach 9.00% in January 2023.
- Nonperforming loans (NPLs) declined to a 7-year low of 5.0% of all loans and advances at the end of September 2022.
- As per the Stress tests conducted by the RBI, NPLs are estimated to decline to 4.9% by September 2023.
v.Deficit:The current account deficit is expected to equal 2.9% of GDP in FY22, its widest since FY2012.
- The current account deficit would moderate to the equivalent of 2.2% of GDP in FY2023 and 1.9% in FY2024.
vi.Public Dept: Due to the pandemic COVID-19, the government debt increased from 75% of GDP in 2019 to 89% in 2020. It now declined to 84% in FY2022 and is expected to continue to decline gradually.
Recent Related News:
On 27th September 2022, Asian Development Bank (ADB) announced its plan to fund at least USD 14 billion between 2022 and 2025 in a comprehensive program of support to ease the food crisis in the Asia-Pacific and to improve long-term food security through strengthening food systems against climate change and biodiversity loss during the 55th Annual Meeting of the ADB Board of Governors being held in Manila, the Philippines from 26th to 30th September 2022.
About Asian Development Bank (ADB):
President– Masatsugu Asakawa
Headquarters– Mandaluyong City, Metro Manila, Philippines
Establishment – 1966
Members– 68 members (49 from Asian and the Pacific and 19 outside)
