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S&P keeps India GDP growth forecast unchanged at 9.5% in FY22; SBI Research Projected more than 9.5% growth in FY22

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S&P keeps India GDP growth forecast unchanged at 9-5% in FY22

S&P Global Ratings has retained the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast of India unchanged at 9.5 percent for the Financial year 2021-22 (FY22) and 7.8 percent for the year ending FY23.

  • GDP growth projection of India was revised for FY 24 to 6 percent from 5.7 percent estimated earlier
  • The Indian economy had shrunk by 3 percent in FY21 as pandemic induced restrictions affected the business activity.

-India’s GDP is likely to grow more than 9.5% in FY22 – SBI research, Ecowrap Report

According to the State Bank of India (SBI) research report, Ecowrap, India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is likely to grow more than 9.5 Percent in FY22 (higher than the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) estimate of 9.5 percent).

  • The real Gross Value Added (GVA) of FY21 increased by 5 percent that is higher than the GDP growth.
  • GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in the Q2 FY22 of 2021-22 is estimated at Rs 35.73 lakh crore, as against Rs 32.97 lakh crore in Q2 FY21, showing a growth of 8.4 percent as compared to a 7.4 percent contraction in Q2 FY21.

RBI and NSO report:

i.In October’s monetary policy review, the RBI had retained the real GDP growth at 9.5 percent in FY22 (7.9 percent in Q2; 6.8 percent in Q3; and 6.1 percent in Q4 of FY22).

ii.As per National Statistical Office (NSO) data, India’s GDP rose by 8.4% during  Q2 FY22.

Key Analysis of the Ecowrap Report:

i.Loss during FY21: In the first half (H1) of FY21, India exhibited a real GDP loss of 11.4 lakh crore (year-on-year basis) due to COVID-19.

ii.Recovery of Economy: The economy has recovered in H1 FY22 with a real gain of 8.2 Lakh crore. In Q2 FY22, the Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) sector reported top-line year-on-year growth of 11 percent, while EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation) and Profit after tax (PAT) grew by 4 percent each.

Recent Related News:

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) released its Trade and Development Report 2021’, which predicted India’s GDP to grow by 7.2 percent in 2021, whereas the Global Growth Rate is projected at 5.3 percent.

About S&P Global Ratings:

President – John Berisford
Headquarters – New York, United States
Parent – S&P Global