NSO’s Quarterly Estimates: India’s GDP Grew 5-Quarter High of 7.8% in Q1FY26

In August 2025, the National Statistics Office (NSO) under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) released the Quarterly Estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the April-June (Q1) of Financial Year 2025-26 (FY26) along with its Expenditure components both at Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices.

• As per the NSO’s latest data, India’s Real GDP is estimated at 7.8% in Q1FY26, registering a 5-Quarter high growth rate. Also, this growth rate is higher than 6.5% recorded in Q1FY25.
• This GDP growth rate further consolidates India’s position as the world’s fastest growing large economy amid global headwinds, especially the 50% tariff imposed by the United States of America (USA).
• This latest GDP estimate surpasses the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)’s projection of 6.5% for Q1FY26.

Growth Estimates for Q1FY26:

Real GDP: Real GDP or GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices, is estimated at Rs 47.89 lakh crore inQ1FY26 compared to Rs 44.42 lakh crore registered in Q1FY25, reflecting an increase of 7.8%.

Nominal GDP: It saw the growth rate of 8.8% in Q1FY26. It is estimated to reach Rs 86.05 lakh crore in Q1 of current FY as against Rs 79.08 lakh crore in Q4FY24.

Real GVA: It registered a 6-quarter high growth of 7.6% (in Q1FY26). It is estimated at Rs 44.64 lakh crore in Q1FY26, against Rs 41.47 lakh crore in Q1FY25.

Nominal GVA: showed a growth of 8.8% (in Q1FY26) as against 9.5% (in Q1FY25). It is estimated to achieve Rs 78.25 lakh crore (in Q1FY26) compared to Rs 71.95 lakh crore (in Q1FY25).

Sector-Wise Contribution:

Primary Sector: including agriculture and mining industries saw the growth rate of 2.8% on Year-on-Year (Y-o-Y) basis as against 2.2%in the corresponding period of previous FY.

• As per the NSO’s latest data, agriculture and allied sector saw the real GVA growth of 3.7% in Q1FY26 over the growth rate of 1.5% registered in Q1FY25.
• While, ‘mining and quarrying’ sector saw the contraction of -3.1% in Q1FY26, compared to the growth rate of 6.6% in corresponding quarter of FY25.

Secondary Sector: comprising of manufacturing and electricity industries registered a growth rate of 7% on Y-o-Y basis as against 8.6% in FY25.

• Manufacturing sector registered the growth rate of 7.7% in Q1FY26, up from 4.8% (in Q4FY25) and slightly higher than 7.6% (in Q1FY25).
• While, Electricity, Gas, Water Supply and Other utility services grew by just 0.5% in Q1FY26; and Construction sector slowed to a 9-quarter low of 7.6%.

Tertiary Sector: It has recorded a substantial growth rate of 9.3% (in Q1FY26), as against the growth rate of 6.8% (in Q1FY25).

• The report showed annual growth rate of various components of tertiary sector: Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communications and Services Related to Broadcasting (8.6% over 5.4%); Financial, Real Estate and Professional Services (9.5% over 6.6%); and Public Administration and Defence (9.8% over 9%).

Expenditure Components for Q1FY26:

Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE): It rebounded in Q1FY26, registering an increase of 7.4% over a contraction of (-1.8%) in Q4FY25 and 0.3% in Q1 of last FY.

Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF): It is an indicator for investor demand, has increased by 7.8% in Q1FY26, down from 9.4% in Q4FY25; but higher than 6.7% in Q1FY25.

Real Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE): It is used to measure household consumption demand. It has reported a growth rate of 7.0% in Q1FY26 compared to 8.3% in the corresponding quarter of last FY.

About Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementaion (MoSPI):

Minister of State (MoS)(Independent Charge, IC)-Rao Inderjit Singh (Constituency- Gurugram, Haryana)