In May 2025, the National Statistics Office (NSO) under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) released the Provisional Estimates (PE) of India’s Gross Domestic Product for Financial Year 2024-25 (FY25) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP for 4th Quarter (Q4: January-March) of FY25 along with its expenditure components.
- As per the NSO latest data, India’s Real GDP is estimated to have slowed to a 4-year low i.e. at 6.5% for full FY25, which is exactly the same as projected in NSO’s Second Advanced Estimates (SAE) released in February 2025.
- This projection is 10 basis points (bps) lower than the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)’s projection of 6.6% for full FY25.
- In contrast to it, India’s Real GDP grew at 7.4% in Q4FY25, the fastest quarterly growth in the year. This growth is mainly driven by industrial growth in sectors like: manufacturing (+4.8%), construction (+10.8%), and mining (+2.5%).
- The NSO data has also revised up India’s GDP estimate for Q3FY25 from its previous estimate of 6.2% to 6.4%.
Growth Estimates for full FY25:
i.Real GDP or GDP at Constant (2011-12) prices is estimated at Rs 187.97 lakh crore in FY25 compared to Rs 176.51 lakh crore in First Revised Estimates (FRE) of GDP for FY24.
ii.The Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices saw the growth rate of 9.8% in FY25. It is expected to reach at Rs 330.68 lakh crore in FY25as against Rs 301.23 lakh crore in FY24.
iii.Real Gross Value Added (GVA) registered a growth of 6.4% (in FY25) over the growth rate of 8.6% (in FY24). It is estimated at Rs 171.87 lakh crore in FY25, against Rs 161.51 lakh crore in FRE for FY24.
iv.Nominal GVA showed a growth rate of 9.5% in FY25. It is estimated to achieve Rs 300.22 lakh crore during FY25 compared to Rs 274.13 lakh (in FY24).
Growth Estimates for Q4FY25:
i.Real GDP or GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices is estimated at Rs 51.35 lakh crore inQ4FY25 compared to Rs 47.82 lakh crore registered in Q4 of FY24, reflecting an increase of 7.4%.
ii.The Nominal GDP saw the growth rate of 10.8% in Q4FY25. It is estimated to reach Rs 88.18 lakh crore in Q4FY25 as against Rs 79.61 lakh crore in Q4FY24.
iii.Real GVA registered a growth of 6.8% (in Q4FY25) compared to 7.3% (in Q4FY24). It is estimated at Rs 45.76 lakh crore in Q4FY25, against Rs 42.86 lakh crore in Q4FY24.
iv.Nominal GVA showed a growth of 9.6% in Q4FY25. It is estimated to achieve Rs 79.46lakh crore (in Q3FY25) compared to Rs 72.51 lakh crore (in Q4FY24).
Contribution of Key Sectors in GDP’s Growth for FY25 & Q4FY25:
i.Construction Sector with a growth rate of 9.4%, led India’s overall GDP growth in FY25, followed by ‘Public Administration, Defence, & Other Services’ (8.9%) and ‘Financial, Real Estate & Professional Service’ sector (7.2%).
ii.Key Sectors contributed to the growth of GDP for Q4FY25: Construction (10.8%), Public Administration, Defence and Other Services (8.7%), and Financial, Real Estate & Professional Services (7.8%).
iii.The primary sector which includes agriculture, mining and quarrying, among others, showed an improved performance with a 4.4% growth rate, up from 2.7% in FY24.
- The sector’s growth in Q4FY25 reached 5.0%, significantly higher than the 0.8% recorded in Q4 of last financial year.
Expenditure Components (at 2011-12 Prices) for FY25 &Q4FY25:
i.The Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) decreased by 1.8% in Q4FY25, the expenditure in absolute terms was the highest among all quarters in FY25 at Rs 5,08,419 crore.
- While, GFCE for full FY25 has decreased significantly to 2.3%, down from 8.1% registered in FY24.
ii.Also, Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), which is an indicator for investor demand, witnessed the growth rate of 7.1% in FY25 and 9.4% in Q4FY25.
iii.The Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE), an indicator of consumption demand exhibited strong growth, achieving 7.2% in FY25 compared to last FY’s rate of 5.6%.
- In contrast, PFCE for Q4 of FY25 slowed to a 5-quarter low to 6.0% compared to 8.1% in Q3FY25 and 6.2% in Q4FY24.
About Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI):
Minister of State (MoS)(Independent Charge, IC)-Rao Inderjit Singh (Constituency- Gurugram, Haryana)
