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NSO Released Provisional Estimates of Annual GDP for FY24 & Quarterly Estimates of GDP for Q4 of FY24

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Provisional Estimates of Annual GDP for 2023-24 And Quarterly Estimates of GDP for Q4 of 2023-24On 31st May 2024, National Statistical Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) released the Provisional Estimates (PE) of Annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the FY24 (2023-24) and Quarterly estimates of GDP for Q4 (January-March) of FY24, both at Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices.

Details of Annual Estimates and Growth Rates:

i.Real GDP at Constant Prices is set to reach a level of Rs 173.82 lakh crore in FY24, against the First Revised Estimates (FRE) of GDP for the FY23 of  Rs 160.71 lakh crore.

ii.Real GDP is expected to grow at 8.2% in FY24 as compared to the growth rate of 7.0% in FY23(2022-23).

iii.The Nominal GDP saw growth rate of 9.6% in FY24 over the growth rate of 14.2% in FY23.

  • Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices in FY24 is estimated at Rs 295.36 lakh crore as against Rs 269.50 lakh crore in FY23 (2022-23).

iv.Real GVA registered a growth of 7.2% (FY24) as compared to 6.7% (FY23). Its is estimated at RS 158.74 lakh crore in the FY24, against the FRE for the year 2022-23 of  Rs 148.05 lakh crore.

  • This growth of Real GVA is mainly driven by growth of manufacturing sector, from 2.2% (FY23) to 9.9% (FY24) and in mining sector, from 1.9% (FY23) to 7.1% (FY24).

v.Nominal GVA showed a growth of 8.5%. It is estimated to achieve Rs 267.62 lakh crore during FY24, against Rs 246.59 lakh crore in FY23.

Details of Quarterly Estimates and Growth Rates

i.India’s GDP growth rate in Q4FY24 grew by 7.8% and Gross Value Added (GVA) is estimated to grow at 6.3%.

  • Real GDP at Constant Prices in Q4 of FY24 is estimated at Rs 47.24 lakh crore, against Rs 43.84 lakh crore in Q4 of FY23.
  • Real GVA in Q4 of FY24 is estimated at Rs 42.23 lakh crore, against Rs 39.74 lakh crore in Q4 of FY23.

ii.Nominal GDP is estimated at Rs 78.28 lakh crore, against Rs 71.23 lakh crore in Q4 of FY23, showing a growth rate of 9.9%.

iii.Nominal GVA in Q4FY24 is estimated at Rs 70.97 lakh crore, against Rs 65.74 lakh crore in Q4FY23.

Points to Note:

i.This Real GDP growth projection for full FY24 is comparatively higher than First  Advance Estimates(FAEs) and Second Advance Estimates (SAEs) of NSO which predicted Real GDP growth for FY24 at 7.3% and 7.6% respectively.

ii.In April 2024, RBI in its Monetary Policy review had estimated India’s GDP growth for Q4FY24 at 7%.

iii.According to the Index of 8 Core Industries released by MoSPI, the combined growth rate of key sectors like Coal, Steel, Cement, Natural Gas, Electricity and Crude Oil, registered growth rate of 6.2% in April 2024 compared to April 2023.

iv.Per Capita National Income increased from Rs 99,404 in FY23 to Rs 1,06,744 in FY24.

v.Growth estimated in investment demand as represented by Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) increased by 6.5% in Q4 FY24 as compared to 9.7 per cent growth in Q3 FY24.

vi.The wide gap between GVA and GDP rate is mainly due to sharp increase in Net Taxes.

  • Net taxes registered a growth of 22.2% in Q4FY24 as against 31.2% in Q3FY24 and 7.7% in Q4FY23.

vii.Growth rate for Q4FY24 was the lowest among all quarters for the year with Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) increased at just 4%.

  • PFCE decreased as 52.9% of GDP.

Note: PFCE is an indicator for consumption demand.

Growth for Primary, Secondary and Tertiary Sectors for 2024:

i.The secondary sector which includes: manufacturing, electricity and construction, increased at 9.7% on a year-on-year basis.

ii.The primary sector which includes: agriculture, mining & quarrying, among others, increased at 2.1% on Year-on-Year(Y-o-Y) basis.

iii.The tertiary sector which includes trade, transport, hotels, real estate, among others, saw a growth of 7.6% on annual basis.

  • Whereas, the combined growth rate of hotel, trade, transport, and services related to broadcasting was at 6.4% on a yearly basis.

About Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementaion (MoSPI):
Minister of State (MoS)- Rao Inderjit Singh (Constituency: Gurugram, Haryana)