On February 28 2025, the National Statistics Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) released the Second Advance Estimates (SAE) of Annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Financial Year 2024-25 (FY25); Quarterly Estimates of GDP for Q3 (October-December 2024) of FY25 along with its expenditure components.
- Apart from them, it has also released data for First Revised Estimates (FRE) for FY23-24 as well as Second Revised Estimates or Final Estimates (FE) for FY22-23, revised upwards due to a change in computation methodology.
- As per the NSO data, India’s Real GDP grew at 6.2% in Q3FY25, which is higher than 5.6% (revised estimate) in Q2(July-September) of FY25. However, this growth rate is significantly lower than 9.5% registered in Q3FY24.
- It has also estimated that India’s GDP will grow at 6.5% for full FY25, which is slightly higher than 6.4% estimated in First Advanced Estimates (FAE) released in January 2025.
- But, this projection is 270 basis points (bps) lower than 9.2% (revised estimate) in FY24.
Note: NSO released these estimates both at Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices, in accordance with the release calendar of National Accounts.
Growth Estimates for Q3FY25:
i.Real GDP or GDP at Constant Prices(2011-12) is estimated at Rs.47.17 lakh crore in Q3FY25 compared to Rs.44.44 lakh crore in Q3FY24,4, showing a growth rate of 6.2%.
ii.Nominal GDP saw the growth rate of 9.9% in Q3FY25,it is estimated at Rs.84.74 lakh crore in Q3FY25 as against Rs.77.10 lakh crore in Q3FY24.
iii.Real Gross Value Added (GVA) rose 6.2% in Q3FY25 compared to 5.8% in Q3FY24,reaching Rs.43.13 lakh crore in Q3FY25, against Rs.40.60 lakh crore in Q3FY24.
iv.Nominal GVA grew 10.2% in Q3FY25,reaching Rs.77.06 lakh crore (in Q3FY25) compared to Rs.69.90 lakh crore (in Q3FY24).
V.Sectoral Growth Performance in Q3FY25:– This growth of Nominal GVA is mainly driven by growth of sectors like: agriculture, livestock, forestry and fishing (22%); public administration, defence and other services (14%); manufacturing (13%) construction (8%), among others.
- Agriculture Livestock, Forestry & Fishing Sector registered 5-quarter high growth of 5.6% in Q3FY25, compared to 4.1% registered in Q2FY25.
- Manufacturing sector registered a growth rate of 3.5% as against 2.1% (in Q2FY25). However, this growth rate is far below 14% growth registered in Q3FY24.
Points to be noted
- Primary Sector: It comprises Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry & Fishing and Mining & Quarrying.
- Secondary Sector: Manufacturing, Electricity, Gas, Water supply & Other Utility Services and Construction.
- Tertiary Sector: Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services related to Broadcasting, Financial, Real Estate & Professional Services and Public Administration, Defence & Other Services.
Growth Estimates for full FY25:
i.Real GDP or GDP at Constant (2011-12) prices is estimated at 6.5% during 2024-25 as compared to 9.2% in 2023-24.It is estimated at Rs.187.95 lakh crore in FY25 compared to Rs.176.51 lakh crore in FRE of GDP for FY24.
ii.Nominal GDP saw the growth rate of 9.9% in FY25, lower than 12% registered in FY24.It is expected to reach at Rs.331.03 lakh crore in FY25 as against Rs.301.23 lakh crore in FY24.
iii.Real Gross Value Added (GVA) registered a growth of 6.4% in FY25 over the growth rate of 8.6% in FY24. It is estimated at Rs.171.80 lakh crore in FY25, against Rs.161.51 lakh crore in FRE for FY24.
iv.Nominal GVA showed a growth of 9.5% in FY25. It is estimated to achieve Rs.300.15 lakh crore during FY25) compared to Rs.274.13 lakh (in FY24).
GDP for FY 2024-25 and its Expenditure Components (at 2011- 12 Prices)
- Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE),a measure of household spending, is projected to grow from 5.6% in FY24 to 7.6% in FY25.
- Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) is expected to decline from 8.1% in FY24 to 3.8% in FY25,
- Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF),represents investment demand is estimated to slow down from 8.8% in FY24 to 6.1% in FY25.
Other Key Projections:
India’s economic growth in FY25 is primarily driven by a strong agricultural sector, which is projected to grow at 4.6%. However, other key sectors show a slowdown compared to the previous year FY24.
- Manufacturing is expected to grow at 4.3%, significantly lower than 12.3% in FY24.
- Construction growth is estimated at 8.6%, down from 10.4% in FY24.
Revised GDP Estimates
i.The National Statistical Office (NSO) has revised India’s Real GDP growth for FY24 from 8.2% to 9.2%, marking the highest growth in 12 years, except for 9.7% in FY22. This increase is primarily driven by Manufacturing (12.3%),Construction (10.4%),and Financial, Real Estate & Professional Services (10.3%).
ii.Real GDP for FY23 has been revised upward to 7.6% from the previous estimate of 7%.
iii.Additionally, the growth rate of Real GDP for Q2FY25 has been increased to 5.6%, reflecting a positive economic momentum.
