On January 5, 2024, the National Statistical Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) released the First Advance Estimates (FAE) of National Income for the financial year 2023-24, both at Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices.
- As per it, Indian economy growth in real GDP will be at 7.3% in FY24 as compared to the 7.2% in FY23.
- While in nominal terms, the projected GDP growth for India in FY24 is 8.9%, a deceleration from the 16.1% recorded in FY23.
Notes:
i.India will retain as the fastest-growing major economy.
ii.It should be noted that the India’s 7% growth rate in FY24 is a the third year in a row.
iii.The higher GDP growth is driven by government expenditure along with a pickup in sectoral outputs of mining, manufacturing, construction and financial services.
- Agriculture and trade, hotels, transport and communication services are slow paced.
iv.This Central Government estimate is higher than the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) upgraded forecast of 7%.
Highlights:
i.Real GDP or GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices FY24 is estimated at Rs 171.79 lakh crore, as against the Provisional Estimate of GDP for FY23 of Rs 160.06 lakh crore, released on 31st May, 2023.
ii.Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices in FY24 is estimated at Rs 296.58 lakh crore as against the Provisional Estimate of GDP for FY23 of Rs 272.41 lakh crore.
- Nominal GDP includes the impact of inflation, and hence the data shows the drop in inflation
iii.Consumption demand is weak in FY24. The Private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) is expected to grow at 4.4% in 2023-24.
- The previous low for PFCE growth rate was 2.9% in 2002-03, while it grew at 7.5% in FY23.
iv.In contrast, Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) is projected to increase sharply at 4.1% in FY24, compared to 0.1% in the previous year.
v.Growth in investment demand as represented by gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) is estimated to ease to 10.3%, from 11.4% in FY23
vi.The growth in net taxes on products is projected at 12.5% in FY24, as against 10.1% in FY23.
Basic Prices by Economic Activity (at 2011-12 Prices)
| Industry | % change over previous year | |
|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | 2023-24 | |
| Manufacturing | 1.3 | 6.5 |
| Construction | 10 | 10.7 |
| Mining & Quarrying | 4.6 | 8.1 |
| Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry & Fishing | 4 | 1.8 |
| Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication & Services related to Broadcasting | 14 | 6.3 |
| Financial, Real Estate & Professional Services | 7.1 | 8.9 |
Assessment:
The Advance Estimates of National Income are derived using data from the first seven-eight months of FY24, and FY23 data. This early release aids officials in the Union Ministry of Finance and other departments in shaping the key aspects of the upcoming Union Budget for FY2025, scheduled for presentation in Parliament on February 1, 2024.
Recent Related News:
i.On October 9, 2023, NSO released its 19th Quarterly Bulletin(QB) of Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) for April-June 2023 (Q1FY24). As per it, India’s urban unemployment rate (UR) in Current Weekly Status (CWS) terms for persons aged 15 years and above declined to 6.6% during Q1FY24 from 6.8% during Q4FY23. It was 7.6% in
April-June 2022 (Q1FY23).
ii.According to the “International Migration Outlook: 2023” published by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), for the 2nd consecutive year, India has retained its position as the top country of origin for new migrants to the member countries of OECD in 2021.
About Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI):
Minister of State (Independent Charge)– Rao Inderjit Singh (Constituency- Gurugram, Haryana)
Secretary– DR. G P Samanta
