On January 07 2025, the National Statistics Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) released the First Advanced Estimates (FAE) of Annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the Financial Year 2024-25 (FY25), along with its expenditure components both at Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices.
Key Highlights
i.Real GDP Growth: As per the NSO data, India’s Real GDP is expected to grow at a 4-year low i.e. at 6.4% in FY25 against the growth rate of 8.2% in Provisional Estimate (PE)of GDP for FY24 (2023-24).
- Real GDP or GDP at Constant (2011-12) prices is estimated at Rs 184.88 lakh crore in FY25, compared to the PE of GDP at Rs 173.82 lakh crore in FY24.
ii.Nominal GDP Growth: Nominal GDP has registered a growth rate of 9.7% in FY25 compared to the growth rate of 9.6% in FY24.
- Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices in FY25 is estimated at Rs 324.11 lakh crore as against Rs 295.36 lakh crore in FY24, reflecting a growth rate of 9.7%.
iii.Gross Value Added (GVA):
- Real Gross Value Added(GVA) registered a growth of 6.4% (FY25) as compared to 7.2% (FY24). It is estimated to grow from Rs 158.74 lakh crore PE for (FY24) to Rs 168.91 lakh crore in (FY25).
- Nominal GVA registered a growth rate of 9.3% in FY25 as against the growth rate of 8.5% in FY24. It is estimated to achieve Rs 292.64 lakh crore during FY25, against Rs 267.62 lakh crore in FY24.
iv.Private and Government Consumption:
- The report highlighted that Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at Constant Prices grew by 7.3% in FY25, compared to 4.0% in FY24.
- While, Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE), which refers to centre government spending on goods and services, at Constant Prices, has rebounded to a growth rate of 4.1% as against the growth rate of 2.5% in FY24.
v.Investment: The report has further estimated that Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), an indicator of new investments in the economy, will grow at 6.4% in FY25 compared with a 9% increase in FY24.
Sector-Wise Real GVA Growth in FY25:
i.The report highlighted that out of 8 broad economic sectors, only two are estimated to register higher growth than previous year.
1.Primary Sector:
- Agriculture and its allied sector are estimated to increase to 3.8% (in FY25) from 1.4% (in FY24).
- Public, Administration, Defence and Other Services, estimated to increase from 7.8% (in FY24) to 9.1% (in FY25).
- GVA growth of Mining & Quarrying is expected to increase to 2.9% in FY25, compared to 7.1% registered in FY24.
2.Secondary sector:
- The cumulative growth of sectors like: electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services from 7.5% (in FY24) to 6.8% (in FY25).
- The construction segment is estimated to grow at 8.6% in FY25 from 9.9% during the previous financial year.
- While, GVA growth of manufacturing sector is expected to decelerate to 5.3% (in FY25) from a high of 9.9% recorded (in FY24) .
3.Tertiary sector: According to NSO data, GVA of sectors like: financial, real estates and professional services expected to grow at 7.3% (in FY25), down from 8.4% (in FY24).
- The combined growth rate of hotel, trade, transport, and services related to broadcasting, is estimated to grow at 5.8% (in FY25) as against 6.4% registered in last financial year.
Assessment:
i.These estimates are indicator based and compiled using the bench-mark indicator method(estimates available for FY24) are extrapolated using the relevant indicators showing the performance of indicators.
ii.The sector-estimates are prepared using different indicators/data sources like: Index of Industrial Production (IIP), financial performances of listed companies based on available quarterly financial results of these companies for Q1 and Q2 of FY25, premium related information of life and non-life insurance companies, among others.
About Ministry of Statistics and Programme implementation (MoSPI):
Minister of State (MoS) (Independent Charge, IC)–Rao Inderjit Singh (Constituency- Gurugram, Haryana)
