According to the World Economic League Table (WELT) 2023Â released by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), India is set to rise from 5th place on the WELT in 2022 to 3rd in the global rankings by 2037. WELT 2023 is the 14th edition.
- India is ranked 5th in WELT 2022 and it is projected to remain the 5th in WELT 2023.
- United States of America(USA) has topped the WELT in 2022 followed by China, Japan and Germany in 2nd, 3rd and 4th rank.
- In 2023 table, the USA is projected to top the ranking followed by China, Germany and Japan in 2nd, 3rd and 4th Rank.
Highlights:
i.India overtook the UK to become the world’s 5th largest economy in 2021. It has consolidated this position and is forecast to overtake Germany to become the world’s 4th largest economy in 2027 and to overtake Japan to become the world’s 3rd largest economy in 2032 and 2037.
ii.By 2035, India is forecast to become the world’s third $10 trillion dollar economy.
iii.The league table by 2037 is projected to be topped by China followed by USA, India, Japan and Germany.
iv.The report states that, as predicted 12 months ago, the global economy surpassed USD 100 trillion for the first time in 2022 and it is projected to reach USD 207 trillion by the end of 2037.
Assessment:
WELT is an annual calculation by CEBR. The base data is taken from the IMF (International Monetary Fund) World Economic Outlook and the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) forecast draws on CEBR’s Global Prospects model to forecast growth, inflation and exchange rates.
- The WELT is calculated by estimating the current year GDP in current price dollars for each of over 190 world economies, and then forecasting real GDP, inflation and exchange rates for each country over the next 15 years.
Key Points w.r.t. India:
i.Over the next five years, India’s annual rate of GDP growth is expected to average 6.4%, after which growth is expected to average 6.5% in the subsequent nine years.
ii.India’s estimated PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) adjusted GDP per capita is $8,293 in 2022, classifying it as a lower middle-income country.
- PPP GDP is gross domestic product converted to international dollars using purchasing power parity rates.
iii.GDP growing by 8.7% in the fiscal year 2021-22, making it the fastest-growing major economy in the world.
iv.Output growth is expected to ease in the fiscal year 2023-24, however, CEBR is forecasting growth of 5.8%, as accelerating, price levels bite into domestic demand.
v.Annual inflation in India has exceeded the target in 2022, at 6.9%, thereby above the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)’s tolerance band upper margin of 6%.
vi.Central Government’s debt stands at 83.4% of GDP at present, with a high fiscal deficit amounting to 9.9% of GDP in 2022.
About Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR):
Chairman– Martin Piers
Headquarters– London, United Kingdom (UK)
