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Booms and busts in international capital flows and commodity prices, as well as the vagaries of international interest rates, have long been associated with economic crises, especially – but not (1) spread in emerging markets. The “type” of crisis varies by time and place. Sometimes the “sudden stop” in capital inflows sparks a currency crash, sometimes a banking crisis, and quite often a (2) sovereign default. Twin and triple crises are not uncommon.
The impact of these global forces on open economies, and how to manage them, has been a recurring topic of discussion among international policymakers for decades. With the (3) overpass of the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates in the near and medium term, it is perhaps not surprising that the International Monetary Fund’s 18th Annual Research Conference, to be held on November 2-3, is devoted to the study and discussion of the global financial cycle and how it (4) proclaim cross-border capital flows.
Rising international interest rates have usually been bad news for countries where the government and/or the private sector rely on external borrowing. But for many emerging markets, external conditions began to worsen around 2012, when China’s growth slowed, commodity prices (5) divulge , and capital flows dried up – developments that (6) refrain a spate of currency crashes spanning nearly every region.
In my recent work with Vincent Reinhart and Christoph Trebesch, I show that over the past two centuries, this “double bust” (in commodities and capital flows) has led to a spike in sovereign defaults, usually with a lag of 1-3 years. Yet, since the peak in commodity prices and global capital flows around 2011, the (7) incidence of sovereign defaults worldwide has risen only modestly.
If the model fitted to almost 200 years of data is used to predict the share of countries in default, the (8) discredit are consistently higher than what has materialized to date. This is the case of the missing defaults.
A caveat, as our study highlights, is that there is a potential mismeasurement of the “true” incidence of default, which we cannot begin to quantify at this time – namely, defaults or (9) scrapped arrears on Chinese loans. China’s lending to many emerging markets, most notably commodity producers, rose significantly during the last boom. While most of this lending is from official Chinese sources, much of it is not (10) reflected in the World Bank data, and unknown amounts may well be in default or protracted arrears.
- 1) exclusively
2) stretched
3) swelled
4) preciously
5) No correction required.Answer – 1)
Explanation: exclusively – to the exclusion of others; only. - 1) fatten2) subservient
3) disdain
4) reamed
5) No correction required.Answer – 5)
Explanation: No correction required. - 1) successive
2) submissive
3) prospect
4) cracks
5) No correction required.Answer – 3)
Explanation: prospect – the possibility or likelihood of some future event occurring. - 1) affects
2) effects3) broadcasts4) concedes
5) No correction required.Answer – 1)
Explanation: affects – have an effect on; make a difference to. - 1) betrayed
2) avowed
3) culpable
4) plummeted
5) No correction required.Answer – 4)
Explanation: plummeted – fall or drop straight down at high speed. - 1) uttered
2) culminated
3) sparked
4) unfolded
5) No correction required.Answer – 3)
Explanation: sparked – emit sparks of fire or electricity. - 1) disdain
2) decline
3) impart
4) confess
5) No correction required.Answer – 5)
Explanation: No correction required. - 1) affirm
2) jettison
3) deny
4) predictions
5) No correction required.Answer – 4)
Explanation: predictions – a thing predicted; a forecast. - 1) scouted
2) despised
3) accumulated
4) spurned5) No correction required.Answer – 3)
Explanation: accumulated – gather together or acquire an increasing number or quantity of. - 1) slough
2) repudiate
3) descend
4) rebuff
5) No correction required.Answer – 5)
Explanation: No correction required.
