According to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)’s report titled “Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air…… please!”, the world has made no progress in limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels in 2023 compared to the previous year.
- As per the report, the gap in implementing policies to achieve the targets set in 2030 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) remains unchanged from previous year assessment by UNEP.
- The report showed that the world is on pace to hit 3.1°C (5.6 degrees Fahrenheit ) of warming since pre-industrial times, which is more than twice the goal, set in 2015 Paris Agreement i.e. to limit global temperature to 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) since pre-industrial times.
Key Findings:
i.The report noted that global Green House Gas (GHG) emissions increased by 1.3% in 2023 to 57.1 Gigatonnes of Carbon Dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) compared to 2022.
- As per the report, the largest contributor of Green House Gas (GHG) Emissions in 2023 was power sector, followed by transport, agriculture and industry.
ii.The report has projected that the emission gap for achieving the 2 °C target at 16 GtCO2e and 21 GtCO2e for 2030 and 2035 respectively, which is same as previous year’s estimates.
- While, for the 1.5 °C target, the emission gaps are estimated at 24GtCO2e and 32 GtCO2e for 2030 and 2035, respectively, almost unchanged since last year’s assessment.
Note: The Emission Gap is the difference between global GHG emissions under full implementation of current NDCs and the levels required under least-cost pathways with stringent emissions reductions for 2030 and 2035.
iii.The report has projected that for conditional (which requires external financial support) and unconditional NDCs, the emission gaps for achieving the 1.5 °C target will be 19 GtCO2e and 22 GtCO2e by 2030 and 26 GtCO2e and 29 GtCO2e by 2035.
iv.The report highlighted that even with full implementation of conditional and unconditional NDCs, emissions are estimated to decrease only by 4% and 10% by 2030 compared to 2019 levels respectively.
- However, the report suggested that in order to meet the 2015 Paris Agreement targets, countries are required to reduce GHG emissions by 28% and 42% by 2030 for 2 °C and 1.5 °C pathways, respectively.
v.The report has cautioned that if current NDCs are implemented without more ambitious commitments which are due by February 2025 then, global temperature could increase by up to 2.6 °C by the end of 2100.
Key Recommendations:
i.According tot the report, it is still technically possible to achieve the target of limiting the global temperature to 1.5°C, emissions are required to be cut by 42% by 2030 and 57% for 2035 compared to 2019 levels and for the 2°C target, reductions of 28% by 2030 and 37% by 2035 are required.
- The report has estimated that emissions would be cut in 2030 up to 31 GtCO2e, which is nearly 52% of global GHG emissions in 2023 and 41 GtCO2e in 2035. This would help to bridge the gap to 1.5°C in both years, at a cost below USD 200 per ton of CO2 equivalent.
ii.The report suggested that increased deployment of solar photovoltaic and wind energy could help to reduce 27% and 38% of the total global GHG emissions by 2030 and 2035, respectively.
iii.As per the report, a minimum six-fold increase in mitigation investment is required to meet net-zero targets, it has estimated incremental investment from 2021 to 2050 to be between USD 0.9 trillion and USD 2.1 trillion annually, equivalent to 0.81-1.9% of the global economy, valued at USD 110 trillion per year.
iv.The report has recommended countries to adopt more ambitious NDCs like: incorporating all gases listed in the Kyoto Protocol, including Carbon Dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH3), Nitrous oxide (N2O) and F-gases (hydrocarbons, perfluorocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride).
v.As per the report, Group-20 (G20) member countries, excluding the African Union (AU), accounted for 77% of the total emissions in 2023, must do the heavy lifting.
- It highlighted the need for differentiated responsibilities between nations.
Note: The 29th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP29) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is scheduled to be held in Baku, Azerbaijan from 11th to 22nd November, 2024.
About United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP):
Executive Director- Inger Anderson
Headquarters- Nairobi, Kenya
Established- 1972
