According to the World Population Prospects 2024 published by the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA), India‘s population is expected to peak at about 1.701 billion in 2062 and then decline by 12% between January and July 2062.
- Currently, India is the most populous country in the world with 1.45 billion people and is likely to remain so until 2100.
- India is followed by China at the 2nd place with a population of 1.419 billion and the United States of America (USA) at the 3rd place with a population of 345 million.
Note: By 2054, India and China would retain their positions, but Pakistan is projected to overtake the USA as 3rd most populous by 2054 with a population of 389 million.
India’s Population Trend:
i.In 2054, India’s current projected population will peak at 1.69 billion and will start declining in 2062.
ii.In 2062, India is likely to add 222,000 people to its population; In 2063, India lose around 115,000 people; and in 2064, this number will increase to 437,000, and 793,000 in 2065.
iii.After this, India’s population is projected to decline to 1.5 billion by the end of the century in 2100.
Global Population Trends:
i.The World Population Prospects 2024 report predicts the global population is expected to peak at 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s, decreasing to 10.2 billion by 2100.
- This forecast is 6% lower than previously anticipated, indicating 700 million fewer people.
ii.The world population would start declining in 2083 at around 10.2 billion. Currently, the global population is around 8.16 billion.
Rankings of the world’s 5 most populous countries and total population:
| Rank | Country | Population in 2024 (in millions) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | India | 1,451 |
| 2 | China | 1,419 |
| 3 | USA | 345 |
| 4 | Indonesia | 283 |
| 5 | Pakistan | 251 |
Population Peaks and Declines:
i.Population size has already peaked in 63 countries, including Germany and Japan, with a projected 14% decline by 2054.
ii.48 countries are expected to peak between 2025 and 2054, including Brazil and Türkiye.
iii.In 126 countries, including India, Pakistan, and the USA, the population is projected to grow through 2054.
iv.9 countries, including Angola, Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Niger, and Somalia, are projected to double their populations between 2024 and 2054.
China’s Population Decline:
i.China’s population will decrease to 1.21 billion in 2054 and 633 million by 2100, due to the low fertility rate, which is currently around one birth per woman.
ii.China is also likely to record the largest population decline of any country through the end of the century (786 million people).
- By 2100, China is projected to have lost more than half of its current population.
iii.It is estimated that China will likely experience the largest absolute population loss between 2024 and 2054 (204 million), followed by Japan (21 million) and Russia (10 million).
Demographic Shifts:
i.About 100 countries, including India, will experience a “demographic dividend” with an increasing share of the working-age population (between 20 and 64 years).
ii.By the late 2070s, persons aged 65 or older globally are projected to reach 2.2 billion, surpassing the number of children under 18.
iii.Persons aged 80 and higher will be 265 million, surpassing the number of infants under age 1 by the mid-2030s.
iv.Even in countries with rapidly growing populations and relatively youthful populations, the number of persons aged 65 or older is expected to rise over the next 30 years.
Recent Related News:
According to the report released by the UN Population Fund’s (UNFPA) State of the World Population titled Interwoven Lives, Threads of Hope: Ending Inequalities in Sexual and Reproductive Health and Rights, India’s population is estimated to double in 77 years.
About the United Nations (UN):
Secretary-General– António Guterres
Headquarters– New York, The United States of America (USA)
Established- 1945
