According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) report titled ‘Coal 2023-Analysis and forecast to 2026‘, Indian coal demand is expected to rise by 3.5% annually to 1397 million tonnes (Mt) til 2026. In 2023, the coal demand in India is estimated to have increased by 8% or 98 Mt.
Note: The Coal Report is an annual publication of IEA which was first launched in 2011.
Global Scenario:
i.The global demand for coal will rise by 1.4% in 2023, reaching a all time high of about 8536 Mt.
- The global coal consumption in 2026 is expected to be 2.3% lower than in 2023, in the absence of governments announcing and implementing stronger clean energy and climate policies.
- Coal consumption in most advanced economies in 2023 is on course for a sharp drop.
ii.In 2022, coal demand reached a new record high of 8 415 Mt, increasing by 4%.
- China accounting for more than 50% of global coal demand is the world’s largest coal consumer. China’s overall coal demand rose by 4.6% to a total of 4520 Mt.
- India, comprising about 14% of global coal demand, is the world’s 2nd-largest coal consumer.
iii.China, India and Indonesia are the three largest coal producers globally in 2023. They account for more than 70% of the world’s coal production.
Demand:
In absolute terms, coal demand in 2023 is estimated to have increased most strongly in China (up 220 Mt, or 4.9%), followed by India (up 98 Mt, or 8%) and Indonesia (up 23 Mt, or 11%).
- The largest declines are expected in the European Union (down 107 Mt, or 23%) and the United States (down 95 Mt, or 21%),
Supply
2023 marks another all-time high in global coal production, totalling 8 741 Mt. Global coal production risen by 1.8% in 2023, with continued growth in India, China and Indonesia
- It will be 8 394 Mt in 2026.
Trade
In 2023 global coal exports are expected to have reached an all-time high of about 1 466 Mt.
- In 2026, the global coal trade may decline by about 12%.
- While thermal coal exports are expected to decline by about 16% by 2026, exports of met coal are expected to slightly increase by almost 2%.
India’s Reliance on coal
i.India aims for 50% non-fossil fuel power by 2030 but may need extra coal capacity to meet growing demand and ensure supply security.
ii.India’s National Electricity Plan aims to add 19-27 GW (Giga Watt) of coal capacity by 2027. With this, the Coal consumption grows by 2.4% in the next three years; renewables increase by 12% annually.
- This indicates a moderate 69 mt increase in coal for power generation by 2026, reaching a total of 1,006 mt.
iii.The Non-power coal also surges due to 6% annual industrial production rise (2024-2026).
- Infrastructure growth, especially in cement production, drives non-power thermal coal and lignite demand.
- Steel demand boosts steam coal and met coal
iv.The non-power coal consumption is estimated at 391 mt in 2026 (21% increase).
- In 2023, non-power thermal coal and lignite consumption rises by 12 mt to 243 mt, while met coal is at 81 mt.
Recent Related News:
i.According to India Development Update(IDU) October 2023 released by World Bank(WB), India’s Gross Domestic Products (GDP) growth for the Financial Year 2023-24 (FY23/24) is retained at 6.3% and for FY24/25 the growth rate will be at 6.4%.
ii.The International Energy Agency (IEA) released its ‘Gas 2023 Medium-Term Market Report‘. As per it, India’s natural gas demand is expected to rise by 4% in 2023 calendar year and will continue to increase at an average annual rate of about 8% till 2026.
About International Energy Agency (IEA):
Executive Director– Dr Fatih Birol
Headquarters– Paris, France
Establishment– 1974
