National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER), a non-profit think tank of economics, forecasted India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the whole year of FY22 in the range of 8.4-10.1 percent with 11.5 percent growth in the Q1FY22(April – June, 2021). It estimated a contraction of 7.3(-7.3) percent in FY21.
Key Points:
i.India’s economic activity in April and May 2021 faced a sharp decline in growth due to the 2nd wave of COVID-19.
ii.It projected growth in export due to recovery in the global economy and it mentioned a rise in fiscal deficit with revenues affected by the depressed level of economic activity.
iii.GDP on constant price at the end of FY22, is estimated to be the same as of FY20 i.e. Rs 146 trillion (Rs 146 lakh crore).
iv.The fiscal deficit is being reduced sharply from 9.2% of GDP in FY21 to 7.2% in FY22.
-Ind-Ra cut India’s GDP Growth Estimate for FY22 to 9.6%
On June 25, 2021, India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) reduced India’s GDP growth forecast for FY22 to 9.6 percent from its earlier estimate of 10.1 percent.
- Alternate Projection: It also stated an alternate growth projection of 9.1 percent, in the case of a slow pace of vaccination or non-availability of vaccines for COVID-19.
Key Points:
i.PFCE: Ind-Ra mentioned the decline in consumption with reduced negative growth of Private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) in Q1 FY21 at -26.2 percent and PFCE is expected to grow by 10.8 percent (Alternate projection: 9.8 percent) in FY22.
ii.Wholesale and Retail inflation: It estimated the average wholesale and retail inflation in FY22 to be at 6.6 percent and 5.5 percent (Alternate projection: 6.7 percent, 5.8 percent). In May 2021, the wholesale and retail inflations were about 12.5 percent and 6.3 percent.
Recent Related News:
On April 23, 2021, Ind-Ra reduced India’s GDP growth forecast of FY22 to 10.1 per cent, from its earlier projection of 10.4 per cent.
About National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER):
Establishment – 1956
Headquarters – New Delhi
President – Nandan M Nilekani
About India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra):
It is a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Fitch Group.
Headquarters– Mumbai, Maharashtra
MD & CEO – Rohit karan Sawhney
