On January 29, 2021, the National Statistical Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) released the First Revised Estimates (FRE) which stated that the growth rate of Indian economy was 4% in FY2019-20. This growth estimate is lower than the provisional estimates (PE) of FY20 growth at 4.2% released in May 2020.
- The estimates cover National Income, Consumption Expenditure, Saving and Capital Formation.
- Reminder: As per the first advance estimates (AE) of national income by MoSPI, India’s GDP (Gross Domestic Product) will shrink 7.7% (-7.7%). It will see a recession after 41 years in FY21. Almost all sectors, except agriculture will see contraction.
Method used for Assessing FRE of FY20:
It has been compiled using industry-wise, institution-wise detailed information instead of using the benchmark-indicator method used in PE on May 29, 2020.
Revised Estimates for FY19 & FY18:
NSO has also released the Second Revised Estimates for the financial year 2018-19 and Third Revised Estimates for the financial year 2017-18 (with Base Year 2011-12) as per the revision policy.
- For 2nd revised estimate of FY2018-19 (FY19) the GDP growth is revised downward to 5% from 6.1%.
- For 3rd revised estimate of FY201-18 (FY18) with Base Year 2011-12 the GDP growth is revised upward to 7% from 6.8%.
Table showing India’s GDP Growth:
| Year | GDP |
|---|---|
| FY19 | 6.5% |
| FY20 (PE) | 4.2% |
| FY20 (FRE) | 4 |
| FY21 (AE) | -7.7% |
Other estimations for first revised estimates for FY20:
Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
—Nominal GDP (or GDP at current prices) has a growth of 7.8% during FY20 as compared to 10.5% during FY19. It stood at Rs 203.51 lakh crore as against Rs 188.87 lakh crore for FY19.
—Real GDP or GDP at constant (2011-12) prices for FY20 is estimated at Rs 145.69 lakh crore with 4% growth in comparison to FY19 estimates of Rs 140.03 lakh crore with 6.5% growth.
Gross Value Added (GVA):
—Nominal GVA saw a growth of 7.6% in FY20 as against 10.7% in FY 19.
—Real GVA i.e., GVA at constant (2011-12) basic prices grew 4.1% in FY20 as compared to 10.7% in FY19. It has been pegged at Rs 123.39 lakh crore in FY21, as against Rs 133.01 lakh crore in FY20
Capital formation:
— Gross Capital Formation (GCF) at current prices is estimated at Rs 65.51 lakh crore for FY20 as compared to Rs 61.73 lakh crore during FY19.
–The rate of GCF to GDP is 32.2% during 2019-20 as against 32.7% in the 2018-19.
— Non-Financial Corporations are the highest contributors in the total GCF (at current prices) with a share of 47.4% in FY20 and 48.9% in FY19.
— Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) is an indicator of investment. It stands at Rs 58.51 lakh crore in 2019-20 as against Rs 55.13 lakh crore in 2018-19.
Gross National Disposable Income (GNDI):
GNDI at current prices is estimated at Rs 206.98 lakh crore for FY20 as compared to Rs 191.78 lakh crore in FY19, showing a growth of 7.9% for FY20 as against growth of 10.8% in FY19.
Savings:
Gross savings as a percentage of GNDI for 2019-20 is estimated at 30.9% against the revised estimate of 30.1% for 2018-19. The earlier gross savings was at 29.7% for FY19, the lowest since 2010-11 new base data.
Net National Income (NNI):
Nominal NNI or NNI at current prices for FY20 stands at Rs 179.94 lakh crore as against Rs 167.05 lakh crore in FY19. It shows a growth of 7.7% during FY20 and growth of 10.3% in FY19.
Consumption Expenditure:
—Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs 123.09 lakh crore for FY20 as against Rs 112.22 lakh crore in FY19.
—Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs 22.85 lakh crore for the year 2019-20 as against Rs 20.38 lakh crore during 2018-19.
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Upcoming Releases:
–2nd AE for FY21, along with quarterly estimates for Q1 (April-June), Q2 (July-September) and Q3 (October-December) will be released on February 26, 2021.
–PE for FY21, along with estimates for all the four quarters of FY21 will be released on May 31, 2021.
Recent Related News:
i.During the RBI’s 6-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in December 2020, it was projected that the real GDP growth will contract at 7.5% (-7.5%) in FY21.
ii.ADB has recently forecasted the GDP of Developing Asia in 2020 to -4% (contract by 4%). It is the 1st regional GDP contraction since the 1960s.
About Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI):
Minister of State (MoS)– Rao Inderjit Singh
Statistics Day– June 29
