On December 26, 2019 United Kingdom(UK)-based Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) released its 11th annual report titled ‘World Economic League Table 2020′(WELT 2020). According to the report, India is expected to overtake Germany as the fourth-largest economy in the world by 2026. It also estimated that India will overtake Japan as the third-largest economy by 2034. The report in detail are as follows:
i.5 trillion-dollar economy: The Indian govt. has set a target to become a 5 trillion-dollar economy by 2024-25. However, the report has estimated that, this target will be achieved in 2026, two years later than the fixed target year.
ii.India in 2019: India overtook both France and the United Kingdom to become the 5th largest economy in 2019.
iii.Next 15 years: The report estimated that India, japan and Germany will battle for the 3rd position in the next 15 years.
iv.Current slow growth: India which so far being hailed as the world’s fastest-growing major economy, suddenly saw growth decline to a 6-year low of 4.5% in the September quarter (Quarter 2/Q2) of 2019-20. It was mainly due to slowdown in investment, driven by financial stress among rural households and weak job creation.
General Report:
i.USA and China: United States of America (USA) will remain as the world’s largest economy throughout 2020s and may be overtaken by China in 2033. In 2019, USA reached 24.8% of world Gross Domestic Product (GDP) which is its largest share of the world economy since 2007.The US economy has managed to reach its highest share of world GDP for 12 years.
ii.UK: The UK is expected to overtake France by 2034 where the UK economy will be a quarter larger than that of France.
iii.Canada & Australia: Two ‘Western’ economies of Canada and Australia will continue to rise in the rankings. By 2034 Canada is predicted to be the 8th largest economy while Australia will be the 13th largest economy.
iv.Other countries: Russia’s stand in the economy ranking is expected to fall from 11th to 12th rank by 2034. Korea will become a top 10 economy by 2027. Indonesia will be on the 11th rank by 2034. Poland will enter the world’s top 20 economies in 2031, reaching 19th place.
v.Fastest risers: 3 Asian economies, the Philippines, Bangladesh and Malaysia are expected to be the fastest risers in the table. Philippines is expected to rise from 38th rank in 2019 to 22nd in 2034; Bangladesh from 41st in 2019 to 26th and Malaysia from 35th to 28th rank.
vi.World Economic League Table: It is an annual calculation by CEBR jointly published by CEBR and Global Construction Perspectives. The base data for 2019 is taken from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook(WEO).
